… Uh, I don’t really get your example with tomato. In that case, the cost is relatively small and the benefit is also just marginal. The Probability of getting everyone in the world to buy a tomato is decent—say, 50% - because it’s easy and many of us already bought it in our life. It’s quite different from IAL, yes?
Therefore I couldn’t follow your line of argument. Could you provide examples or elaborate more on ‘effective paths to big gains’?
In summary, I disagree that large expected gains is an argument for action when applied like this. Normally, this heuristic is fine, but here you are multiplying by many instances, meaning there are other likely actions.
In summary of my summary: opportunity cost will sting at scale.
… Uh, I don’t really get your example with tomato. In that case, the cost is relatively small and the benefit is also just marginal. The Probability of getting everyone in the world to buy a tomato is decent—say, 50% - because it’s easy and many of us already bought it in our life. It’s quite different from IAL, yes?
Therefore I couldn’t follow your line of argument. Could you provide examples or elaborate more on ‘effective paths to big gains’?
In summary, I disagree that large expected gains is an argument for action when applied like this. Normally, this heuristic is fine, but here you are multiplying by many instances, meaning there are other likely actions.
In summary of my summary: opportunity cost will sting at scale.