Something which is low impact in the moment T0, could have large impact in the moment T1. For example, if AI is not breaking a vase in the moment T0, it is low impact event, but if a human being later crashes his head on this vase in the next moment T1, when not crashing the vase in T0 becomes very large impact event on the person’s wellbeing.
Moreover, if in the moment T2 it turns out that the person, who crashed his head at T1, was next Hitler, when again preserving the vase in the T0 becomes a low impact event, and so on. In other words, to calculate the real impact of an event we have to calculate its consequences until the end of eternity, which is impossible.
Also, longterm impact can’t be calculated without knowing actual human values, so lowering the impact is the same task as AI alignment, and low impact task can’t replace AI alignment task or be solved separately.
Moreover, if in the moment T2 it turns out that the person, who crashed his head at T1, was next Hitler, when again preserving the vase in the T0 becomes a low impact event
why does it become a low impact event in your eyes?
In other words, to calculate the real impact of an event we have to calculate its consequences until the end of eternity, which is impossible.
What is your model of the thing that people are doing in their heads when they say things are impactful or not?
longterm impact can’t be calculated without knowing actual human values, so lowering the impact is the same task as AI alignment, and low impact task can’t replace AI alignment task or be solved separately.
Can you elaborate on this, and what your definition of impact is? I think we might be thinking of different things, and I’m interested as to what yours is.
1. In my eyes, it is a low impact event, as its 3 stages unfold as: The vase is preserved, new Hitler is killed by the vase, human history didn’t change in much worse direction.
An alternative is: The vase is broken, new Hitler is saved by the vase, human history change in much worse direction.
2. I think that people think of low impact as of actions which have very small consequences outside given space-time (or other) limits. For example, a robot moves from A to B without breaking the vase.
3. From my point of view, the impact is a long-term effect on human history, measured according to our values. Minimising near-term impact doesn’t necessary mean minimising long term impact because of the “butterfly effect”, and this was the main idea of my comment.
Something which is low impact in the moment T0, could have large impact in the moment T1. For example, if AI is not breaking a vase in the moment T0, it is low impact event, but if a human being later crashes his head on this vase in the next moment T1, when not crashing the vase in T0 becomes very large impact event on the person’s wellbeing.
Moreover, if in the moment T2 it turns out that the person, who crashed his head at T1, was next Hitler, when again preserving the vase in the T0 becomes a low impact event, and so on. In other words, to calculate the real impact of an event we have to calculate its consequences until the end of eternity, which is impossible.
Also, longterm impact can’t be calculated without knowing actual human values, so lowering the impact is the same task as AI alignment, and low impact task can’t replace AI alignment task or be solved separately.
why does it become a low impact event in your eyes?
What is your model of the thing that people are doing in their heads when they say things are impactful or not?
Can you elaborate on this, and what your definition of impact is? I think we might be thinking of different things, and I’m interested as to what yours is.
1. In my eyes, it is a low impact event, as its 3 stages unfold as: The vase is preserved, new Hitler is killed by the vase, human history didn’t change in much worse direction.
An alternative is: The vase is broken, new Hitler is saved by the vase, human history change in much worse direction.
2. I think that people think of low impact as of actions which have very small consequences outside given space-time (or other) limits. For example, a robot moves from A to B without breaking the vase.
3. From my point of view, the impact is a long-term effect on human history, measured according to our values. Minimising near-term impact doesn’t necessary mean minimising long term impact because of the “butterfly effect”, and this was the main idea of my comment.