...or it might escalate with a Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine followed by NATO counterattacks against Russia...
That is possible. But I think it is important not to treat this as one scenario in your list of possible escalations but as two:
Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine
Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine followed by NATO counterattacks against Russia
I believe that P(scenario 1) >> P(scenario 2). NATO knows about the nuclear capabilities of Russia. Therefore attacks of NATO on Russia seem to me extremely unlikely, given the history of the Cold War.
Unless, of course, NATO (or the US unilaterally) extends its deterrence on the Ukraine (e.g., by taking Ukraine into NATO; however there won’t be the necessary unanimity within NATO for that). Because attacking Russia as a result of a Russian nuclear strike on a third country (Ukraine) without explicitly threating to do so in advance would be approaching the level of craziness of the movie “Dr. Strangelove” (Russia’s secret doomsday machine).
For that reason I don’t spend much time thinking about preparation for a nuclear war (I am living in Germany). But what I do think to be important is to prepare for acts of state terrorism, e.g.:
a) This time it was an attack on the Russian pipelines (whoever may be responsible for that). The next time there could be attacks on Western gas pipelines or LNG-terminals.
b) Hacker attacks could bring down crucial elements of Western societies (e.g., electricity grid, banking system).
I think given this increased risk it makes sense to prepare for situations where the normal systems in a country are not working for a couple of weeks (having enough food, water, banknotes, etc.).
I treated it as one scenario mainly because I had seen on my twitter timeline that NATO had informed Russia that if they used nukes then NATO would strike back with conventional military.
That is possible. But I think it is important not to treat this as one scenario in your list of possible escalations but as two:
Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine
Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine followed by NATO counterattacks against Russia
I believe that P(scenario 1) >> P(scenario 2). NATO knows about the nuclear capabilities of Russia. Therefore attacks of NATO on Russia seem to me extremely unlikely, given the history of the Cold War.
Unless, of course, NATO (or the US unilaterally) extends its deterrence on the Ukraine (e.g., by taking Ukraine into NATO; however there won’t be the necessary unanimity within NATO for that). Because attacking Russia as a result of a Russian nuclear strike on a third country (Ukraine) without explicitly threating to do so in advance would be approaching the level of craziness of the movie “Dr. Strangelove” (Russia’s secret doomsday machine).
For that reason I don’t spend much time thinking about preparation for a nuclear war (I am living in Germany). But what I do think to be important is to prepare for acts of state terrorism, e.g.:
a) This time it was an attack on the Russian pipelines (whoever may be responsible for that). The next time there could be attacks on Western gas pipelines or LNG-terminals.
b) Hacker attacks could bring down crucial elements of Western societies (e.g., electricity grid, banking system).
I think given this increased risk it makes sense to prepare for situations where the normal systems in a country are not working for a couple of weeks (having enough food, water, banknotes, etc.).
I treated it as one scenario mainly because I had seen on my twitter timeline that NATO had informed Russia that if they used nukes then NATO would strike back with conventional military.