Imagine that some new ML breakthrough means that everyone expects that in five years AI will be very good at making X. People who were currently planning on borrowing money to build a factory to make X cancel their plans because they figure that any factory they build today will be obsolete in five years. The resulting reduction in the demand for borrowed money lowers interest rates.
I tend to intuitively strongly agree with James Miller’s point (hence me upvoting it).
There is a strong case to make that a TAI would tend to spook economic agents which create products/services that could easily be done by a TAI.
For an anology think about a student who wants to decide on what xe (I prefer using the neopronoun “xe” than “singular they” as it is less confusing) wants to study for xir future job prospects: if that student thinks that a TAI might do something much faster/better than xem in the future (translating one language into another, accounting, even coding, etc...) that student might be spooked into thinking “oh wait maybe I should think twice before investing my time/energy/money into studying these.”, so basically a TAI could create lot of uncertainty/doubt/… for economic actors and in most cases uncertainty/doubt/… have an inhibiting effect on investment decisions and hence on interest rates, don’t they?
I am very willing to be convinced of the opposite and I see a lot of downvotes for James Miller hypothesis but not many people so far arguing against it.
Could someone please who downvoted/disagrees with that argument kindly make the argument against James Miller hypothesis? I would very much appreciated that and then maybe change my mind as a result but as it stands I tend to strongly agree with James Miller well stated point.
Imagine that some new ML breakthrough means that everyone expects that in five years AI will be very good at making X. People who were currently planning on borrowing money to build a factory to make X cancel their plans because they figure that any factory they build today will be obsolete in five years. The resulting reduction in the demand for borrowed money lowers interest rates.
Hello,
I tend to intuitively strongly agree with James Miller’s point (hence me upvoting it).
There is a strong case to make that a TAI would tend to spook economic agents which create products/services that could easily be done by a TAI.
For an anology think about a student who wants to decide on what xe (I prefer using the neopronoun “xe” than “singular they” as it is less confusing) wants to study for xir future job prospects: if that student thinks that a TAI might do something much faster/better than xem in the future (translating one language into another, accounting, even coding, etc...) that student might be spooked into thinking “oh wait maybe I should think twice before investing my time/energy/money into studying these.”, so basically a TAI could create lot of uncertainty/doubt/… for economic actors and in most cases uncertainty/doubt/… have an inhibiting effect on investment decisions and hence on interest rates, don’t they?
I am very willing to be convinced of the opposite and I see a lot of downvotes for James Miller hypothesis but not many people so far arguing against it.
Could someone please who downvoted/disagrees with that argument kindly make the argument against James Miller hypothesis? I would very much appreciated that and then maybe change my mind as a result but as it stands I tend to strongly agree with James Miller well stated point.