In the second, experts consistently overestimate how long progress will take
This doesn’t seem like a fair characterization of AI. People have been predicting we could build machines that “think like humans” at least since Charles Babbage and they are all pretty consistently overoptimistic.
but to do that you’d need either a more detailed understanding
My point is precisely that we do have a detailed understanding of what it takes to build a fusion reactor, and it is still (at least) 15 years away.
This doesn’t seem like a fair characterization of AI. People have been predicting we could build machines that “think like humans” at least since Charles Babbage and they are all pretty consistently overoptimistic.
My point is precisely that we do have a detailed understanding of what it takes to build a fusion reactor, and it is still (at least) 15 years away.