Let’s say you are waiting in line in the supermarket to pay. It costs you no additional time to take a paper and note down an estimated amount of money that you have to pay.
It’s probably rather like quiting smoking. Going through life while being fuzzy about your expectations is just easier than making predictions.
However all that talk about cognitive biases doesn’t do much when you just gather knowledge but don’t change any of your deep seated habits.
Though, one alternative that seems to work is making bets with people. It seems to work because the thought of gaining coolness/status points over the other person overcomes the resistance to putting in the effort of thinking about the prediction. Apparently some major financial firms (Renaissance?) have a culture where you are actively encouraged to do this.
It’s not really that there’s much time involved.
Let’s say you are waiting in line in the supermarket to pay. It costs you no additional time to take a paper and note down an estimated amount of money that you have to pay.
It’s probably rather like quiting smoking. Going through life while being fuzzy about your expectations is just easier than making predictions.
However all that talk about cognitive biases doesn’t do much when you just gather knowledge but don’t change any of your deep seated habits.
It would cost me effort and thought cycles; I would pay $100 a year at least to have this prediction/calibration thing done by magic.
Though, one alternative that seems to work is making bets with people. It seems to work because the thought of gaining coolness/status points over the other person overcomes the resistance to putting in the effort of thinking about the prediction. Apparently some major financial firms (Renaissance?) have a culture where you are actively encouraged to do this.