In general, excluding a few fields, I’m not aware that g-factor beyond +3 SD shows up in an important way in life outcomes.
The richest/most powerful/most successful aren’t generally the smartest (again, excluding a few fields).
It has been pointed out to me that the lack of such evidence of cognitive superiority may simply be because there’s not enough data on people above +3 SD g factor.
But regardless, when I look at our most capable people, they just don’t seem to be all that smart.
This is a position I might change my mind on, if we were able to get good data quantifying the gains to real world capabilities moving further out on the human spectrum.
The richest/most powerful/most successful aren’t generally the smartest (again, excluding a few fields).
That is exactly addressed by the comment you are replying to:
There’s probably less than 10 +6 SD people alive on the earth today, wheras there are ~10 million +3 SD people.
Imagine a world containing exactly 10 people with IQ 190, each of them having 100% chance to become one of “the best”; and 10 000 000 people with IQ 145, each of them having 0.001% chance to become one of “the best”.
In such world, we would have 110 people who are “the best”, and 100 of them would have IQ 145.
Just because they are a majority in the category doesn’t mean that their individual chances are similar.
It’s more that gains from higher g factor beyond +3 SD seem to be minimal/nonexistent in commerce, politics, etc.
Hard science research and cognitive sports are domains in which the most successful seem to be above +3 SD g factor.
I’m not compelled by the small sample size objection because there are actually domains in which the most successful are on average > +3 SD g factor. Those domains just aren’t commerce/politics/other routes of obtaining power.
As best as I can tell, your reply seems like a misunderstanding of my objection?
The richest/most powerful/most successful aren’t generally the smartest (again, excluding a few fields).
Bill Gates has more than +3 SD g factor given his SAT scores. With Bezos, we don’t know his SAT scores but we do know that he was valedictorian. According to Wikipedia the school he attended features in lists of the top 1000 schools in the US. This suggests that the average student at the school is significantly smarter than the average US citizen, so being a valedictorian in that school likely also suggests >3 SD g factor.
Ben Bernanke and Yellen as chairs of the Federal Reserve also seem examples of people with significantly more than 3SD g factor.
I don’t think you get the 22.4% of Jewish Nobel prize winners without IQ that goes beyond >3 SD g factor helping with winning Nobel prizes.
Wait, how are you estimating Ben Bernanke and Yellen’s g factor. Your reason for guessing it seem much less compelling to me than for Gates and Bezos.
I mean inferring from SAT seems sensible. Valedictorian status is also not as sketchy. I won’t necessarily trust it, but the argument is plausible, and I expect we could later see it validated.
Our hard science superstars/chess superstars seem to have a mean and median g factor that’s +3 SD.
This does not seem to be the case for self made billionaires, politicians, bureaucrats or other “powerful people”.
g factor seems to have diminishing marginal returns in how much power it lets you attain?
For Ben Bernanke it’s SAT score. For Yellen there’s a New York Times story where they asked a described a colleague to describe her and they said “small lady with a large IQ”. There are a few headlines that describe her that way as well.
Chess is not an IQ-driven activity. The same goes for Go. One Go player who I don’t think would have qualified for Mensa himself has once visiting a professional Go school in Korea and his impression was that the average professional Go player isn’t very smart.
I’m not sure who you mean with hard science superstars. There seems to be an analysis of the best scientists in 1952 that suggests mean IQ of around 154 for them.
It’s hard to know the average IQ for self-made billionaires. If we however just at the top tech billionaires people like Bill Gates (perfect math SAT score), Steve Balmer (perfect math SAT score), Jeff Bezos (valedictorian at top school) and Mark Zuckerberg (perfect SAT score) that suggests IQ is helping very much.
I’m not aware of any data from that class of people that speaks about people who have just 130 IQ.
I’m under the impression that many of the best chess players are +4 SD and beyond in IQ.
For scientists, I was thinking of that study that claimed an average IQ of around 154 yeah.
Players at a Go school not being very smart has little bearing on my point. If we found out that the average IQ of the best Go players was e.g. < 130, that would be a relevant counterargument, but the anecdote you presented doesn’t sound particularly relevant.
Out of curiosity, what IQ range does a perfect SAT score map to?
Do you have a specific counterexample in mind when you say “when I look at our most capable people, they just don’t seem to be all that smart”?
If we consider the 10 richest people in the world, all 10 of them (last time I checked) seem incredibly smart, in addition to being very driven. Success in politics seems less correlated with smarts, but I still perceive politicians in general to have decent intelligence (Which is particularly applied in their ability to manipulate people), and to the extent that unintelligent people can succeed in politics, I attribute that to status dynamics largely unrelated to a person’s capability
When it comes to US presidents, I don’t think status dynamics largely unrelated to a person’s capability really fits it.
While they might not have significantly more than 3 SD g factor, they often have skills that distinguish them. Bill Clinton had his legendary charisma for 1-on-1 interactions. Barack Obama managed to hold speeches that made listeners feel something deeply emotional. Trump has his own kind of charisma skills.
Charisma skills are capabilities of people even when they are not largely driven by IQ.
In general, excluding a few fields, I’m not aware that g-factor beyond +3 SD shows up in an important way in life outcomes.
The richest/most powerful/most successful aren’t generally the smartest (again, excluding a few fields).
It has been pointed out to me that the lack of such evidence of cognitive superiority may simply be because there’s not enough data on people above +3 SD g factor.
But regardless, when I look at our most capable people, they just don’t seem to be all that smart.
This is a position I might change my mind on, if we were able to get good data quantifying the gains to real world capabilities moving further out on the human spectrum.
That is exactly addressed by the comment you are replying to:
Imagine a world containing exactly 10 people with IQ 190, each of them having 100% chance to become one of “the best”; and 10 000 000 people with IQ 145, each of them having 0.001% chance to become one of “the best”.
In such world, we would have 110 people who are “the best”, and 100 of them would have IQ 145.
Just because they are a majority in the category doesn’t mean that their individual chances are similar.
No, I wasn’t directly comparing +6 SD to +3 SD.
It’s more that gains from higher g factor beyond +3 SD seem to be minimal/nonexistent in commerce, politics, etc.
Hard science research and cognitive sports are domains in which the most successful seem to be above +3 SD g factor.
I’m not compelled by the small sample size objection because there are actually domains in which the most successful are on average > +3 SD g factor. Those domains just aren’t commerce/politics/other routes of obtaining power.
As best as I can tell, your reply seems like a misunderstanding of my objection?
Bill Gates has more than +3 SD g factor given his SAT scores. With Bezos, we don’t know his SAT scores but we do know that he was valedictorian. According to Wikipedia the school he attended features in lists of the top 1000 schools in the US. This suggests that the average student at the school is significantly smarter than the average US citizen, so being a valedictorian in that school likely also suggests >3 SD g factor.
Ben Bernanke and Yellen as chairs of the Federal Reserve also seem examples of people with significantly more than 3SD g factor.
I don’t think you get the 22.4% of Jewish Nobel prize winners without IQ that goes beyond >3 SD g factor helping with winning Nobel prizes.
Wait, how are you estimating Ben Bernanke and Yellen’s g factor. Your reason for guessing it seem much less compelling to me than for Gates and Bezos.
I mean inferring from SAT seems sensible. Valedictorian status is also not as sketchy. I won’t necessarily trust it, but the argument is plausible, and I expect we could later see it validated.
Our hard science superstars/chess superstars seem to have a mean and median g factor that’s +3 SD.
This does not seem to be the case for self made billionaires, politicians, bureaucrats or other “powerful people”.
g factor seems to have diminishing marginal returns in how much power it lets you attain?
For Ben Bernanke it’s SAT score. For Yellen there’s a New York Times story where they asked a described a colleague to describe her and they said “small lady with a large IQ”. There are a few headlines that describe her that way as well.
Chess is not an IQ-driven activity. The same goes for Go. One Go player who I don’t think would have qualified for Mensa himself has once visiting a professional Go school in Korea and his impression was that the average professional Go player isn’t very smart.
I’m not sure who you mean with hard science superstars. There seems to be an analysis of the best scientists in 1952 that suggests mean IQ of around 154 for them.
It’s hard to know the average IQ for self-made billionaires. If we however just at the top tech billionaires people like Bill Gates (perfect math SAT score), Steve Balmer (perfect math SAT score), Jeff Bezos (valedictorian at top school) and Mark Zuckerberg (perfect SAT score) that suggests IQ is helping very much.
I’m not aware of any data from that class of people that speaks about people who have just 130 IQ.
I’m under the impression that many of the best chess players are +4 SD and beyond in IQ.
For scientists, I was thinking of that study that claimed an average IQ of around 154 yeah.
Players at a Go school not being very smart has little bearing on my point. If we found out that the average IQ of the best Go players was e.g. < 130, that would be a relevant counterargument, but the anecdote you presented doesn’t sound particularly relevant.
Out of curiosity, what IQ range does a perfect SAT score map to?
Do you have a specific counterexample in mind when you say “when I look at our most capable people, they just don’t seem to be all that smart”?
If we consider the 10 richest people in the world, all 10 of them (last time I checked) seem incredibly smart, in addition to being very driven. Success in politics seems less correlated with smarts, but I still perceive politicians in general to have decent intelligence (Which is particularly applied in their ability to manipulate people), and to the extent that unintelligent people can succeed in politics, I attribute that to status dynamics largely unrelated to a person’s capability
When it comes to US presidents, I don’t think status dynamics largely unrelated to a person’s capability really fits it.
While they might not have significantly more than 3 SD g factor, they often have skills that distinguish them. Bill Clinton had his legendary charisma for 1-on-1 interactions. Barack Obama managed to hold speeches that made listeners feel something deeply emotional. Trump has his own kind of charisma skills.
Charisma skills are capabilities of people even when they are not largely driven by IQ.
Quoting myself from elsewhere: