It’s a bit ambiguous, but “bioweapon catastrophe or social collapse” is not literal extinction, and I’m reading “I expect the future to be short and grim” as plausibly referring to destruction of uninterrupted global civilization, which might well recover after 3000 years. The text doesn’t seem to rule out this interpretation.
Sufficiently serious synthetic biology catastrophes prevent more serious further catastrophes, including by destroying civilization, and it’s not very likely that this involves literal extinction. As a casual reader of his blogs over the years, I’m not aware of Scott’s statements to the effect that his position is different from this, either clearly stated or in aggregate from many vague claims.
It’s a bit ambiguous, but “bioweapon catastrophe or social collapse” is not literal extinction, and I’m reading “I expect the future to be short and grim” as plausibly referring to destruction of uninterrupted global civilization, which might well recover after 3000 years. The text doesn’t seem to rule out this interpretation.
Sufficiently serious synthetic biology catastrophes prevent more serious further catastrophes, including by destroying civilization, and it’s not very likely that this involves literal extinction. As a casual reader of his blogs over the years, I’m not aware of Scott’s statements to the effect that his position is different from this, either clearly stated or in aggregate from many vague claims.