I’m not sure how to integrate such long-term markets from Manifold. But anyway, that market seems to have a very vague notion of emulation. For example, it doesn’t mention anything about the emulation doing any useful cognitive work!
Once we get superintelligence, we might get every other technology that the laws of physics allow, even if we aren’t that “close” to these other technologies.
Maybe they believe in a ≈38% chance of superintelligence by 2039.
PS: Your comment may have caused it to drop to 38%. :)
Brain emulation looks closer than your summary table indicates.
Manifold estimates a 48% chance by 2039.
Eon Systems is hiring for work on brain emulation.
Manifold is pretty weak evidence for anything >=1 year away because there are strong incentives to bet on short term markets.
I’m not sure how to integrate such long-term markets from Manifold. But anyway, that market seems to have a very vague notion of emulation. For example, it doesn’t mention anything about the emulation doing any useful cognitive work!
Once we get superintelligence, we might get every other technology that the laws of physics allow, even if we aren’t that “close” to these other technologies.
Maybe they believe in a ≈38% chance of superintelligence by 2039.
PS: Your comment may have caused it to drop to 38%. :)
Manifold estimates an 81% chance of ASI by 2036, using a definition that looks fairly weak and subjective to me.
I’ve bid the brain emulation market back up a bit.