Basically what Raemon said. I wanted to summarize my opinions, give people something to disagree with (both the numbers and the rubric), highlight what considerations seem important to me (colored fields); but the numbers are made up (because they are predictions, which are difficult; and they are far from fully operationalized; and they are about a huge variety of complex things, so would be difficult to evaluate; and I’ve thought hard about some of the numbers, but not about most of them). It’s better than giving no numbers, no?
FYI I do think the downside of “people may anchor off the numbers” is reasonable to weigh in the calculus of epistemic-community-norm-setting.
I would frame the question: “is the downside of people anchoring off potentially-very-off-base numbers worse than the upside of having intuitions somewhat more quantified, with more gears exposed?”. I can imagine that question resolving in the “actually yeah it’s net negative”, but, if you’re treating the upside as “zero” I think you’re missing some important stuff.
Basically what Raemon said. I wanted to summarize my opinions, give people something to disagree with (both the numbers and the rubric), highlight what considerations seem important to me (colored fields); but the numbers are made up (because they are predictions, which are difficult; and they are far from fully operationalized; and they are about a huge variety of complex things, so would be difficult to evaluate; and I’ve thought hard about some of the numbers, but not about most of them). It’s better than giving no numbers, no?
.
FYI I do think the downside of “people may anchor off the numbers” is reasonable to weigh in the calculus of epistemic-community-norm-setting.
I would frame the question: “is the downside of people anchoring off potentially-very-off-base numbers worse than the upside of having intuitions somewhat more quantified, with more gears exposed?”. I can imagine that question resolving in the “actually yeah it’s net negative”, but, if you’re treating the upside as “zero” I think you’re missing some important stuff.