The naive approximation gives 100% chance of death for both options, but we know it’s less accurate for larger probabilities, so that should mean the two 50% risks is safer. In fact, 1 - (1 − 0.5)^2 = 75% is actually larger than 1 - (1 − 0.05)^20 = 64%. This means that the naive approximation is also bad at numerous iterations (large exponents).
The naive approximation gives 100% chance of death for both options, but we know it’s less accurate for larger probabilities, so that should mean the two 50% risks is safer. In fact, 1 - (1 − 0.5)^2 = 75% is actually larger than 1 - (1 − 0.05)^20 = 64%. This means that the naive approximation is also bad at numerous iterations (large exponents).