Polling shows that only around 3% of the Honduran electorate opposed ZEDEs; 75%-97% of Hondurans either support them, don’t care, or are focused on bettering their lives through whatever opportunities present themselves.
2⁄7 The first hint that most Hondurans saw through the anti-ZEDE astroturfing came from Television polling in 2021. That polling indicated ~80% of Hondurans believed the opposition to ZEDEs was purely political.
3⁄7 Later, between January and February 2022, Gallup did a rare scientific post-election poll of 1222 Honduran citizens with a 95% confidence level (+/-2.8%) to assess what was really on their mind regarding ZEDEs.
4⁄7 That polling found that only 3% cited opposition to ZEDEs as driving the vote for Xiomara Castro, negligible enough to be within the margin of error itself. It was around the same number of Hondurans (2%) who voted “to promote socialism in Honduras.”
But this was asking for the main factor, so that doesn’t mean they were saying people aren’t opposed to ZEDEs, only that people don’t think it’s the main thing.
5⁄7 Around the same time, the 3% number was corroborated by a Libre-sympathetic poll, in which only 3.1% of respondents cited ZEDEs as the main damage done by the prior administration. It is a fair inference that Anti-ZEDE sentiment possessed 3% of the Honduran electorate.
Same problem as before.
6⁄7 So what did Hondurans really think about ZEDEs? At supermajority levels consistent with the TV polling cited at the beginning, only now at a 95% confidence level, Hondurans overwhelmingly emphasized the need for protecting foreign investment & protecting ZEDE jobs.
Here, they compared things like whether the administration should prioritize “generating jobs” over “repealing or reforming ZEDE law”. I suppose the purpose of doing this sort of forced-choice situation is to prevent people from going “I want everything good but I don’t want anything bad in order to achieve it”. Which on the one hand is reasonable for pragmatic purposes as you can’t have good stuff without costs. But on the other hand, isn’t part of Hondura’s problem that people keep going “We want everything good but not anything bad”?
7⁄7 The anti-ZEDE “movement” in Honduras is a mythological creature. It was concocted by foreign and domestic ideologues and political manipulators during an election season as the preferred banner of the tiny fringe of those who already favored radical political goals.
I don’t understand how anti-ZEDE movements makes for a good banner for political manipulation if it is so unpopular. I think the “We want everything good but not anything bad” model works better.
This tweet by ?a lawyer for Prospera? was retweeted by the CEO for Prospera: https://twitter.com/NickDranias/status/1674402978768330752
It claims:
Struggling to find the source of this number.
We got a response: https://twitter.com/NickDranias/status/1681448423344734216
Issue is I don’t know much about Honduran television polls.
But this was asking for the main factor, so that doesn’t mean they were saying people aren’t opposed to ZEDEs, only that people don’t think it’s the main thing.
Same problem as before.
Here, they compared things like whether the administration should prioritize “generating jobs” over “repealing or reforming ZEDE law”. I suppose the purpose of doing this sort of forced-choice situation is to prevent people from going “I want everything good but I don’t want anything bad in order to achieve it”. Which on the one hand is reasonable for pragmatic purposes as you can’t have good stuff without costs. But on the other hand, isn’t part of Hondura’s problem that people keep going “We want everything good but not anything bad”?
I don’t understand how anti-ZEDE movements makes for a good banner for political manipulation if it is so unpopular. I think the “We want everything good but not anything bad” model works better.