Another reason for attributing part of the gains (from betting on the coronavirus market crash) to luck, from Rob Henderson’s newsletter which BTW I highly recommend:
The geneticist Razib Khan has said that the reason the U.S. took so long to respond to the virus is that Americans do not consider China to be a real place. For people in the U.S., “Wuhan is a different planet, mentally.” From my view, it didn’t seem “real” to Americans (or Brits) until Italy happened.
Not only have I lived in China, my father was born in Wuhan and I’ve visited there multiple times.
It feels like your background should be attributed differently than things like the Saudi-Russian spat, or the artificially deflated VIX. In Zvi’s terminology this is an Unknown Known; it isn’t as though you weren’t updating based on it. It was merely an unarticulated component of the prior.
Another reason for attributing part of the gains (from betting on the coronavirus market crash) to luck, from Rob Henderson’s newsletter which BTW I highly recommend:
Not only have I lived in China, my father was born in Wuhan and I’ve visited there multiple times.
It feels like your background should be attributed differently than things like the Saudi-Russian spat, or the artificially deflated VIX. In Zvi’s terminology this is an Unknown Known; it isn’t as though you weren’t updating based on it. It was merely an unarticulated component of the prior.