M. Y. Zuo, what you describe is completely possible. The problem is that such positive outcome, as well as all others, is extremely uncertain! It’s a huge gamble. Like I’ve said in other posts: would you spin a wheel of fortune with, let’s say, 50% probability of Heaven, and 50% probability of extinction or worse?
Let me tell you that I wouldn’t spin that wheel, not even with a 5% probability of bad outcomes only. Alignment is about making sure that we reduce that probability to a low as we can. The stakes are super high.
And if like me you place a low probability of acceptable outcomes without alignment solved, then it becomes even more imperative.
M. Y. Zuo, what you describe is completely possible. The problem is that such positive outcome, as well as all others, is extremely uncertain! It’s a huge gamble. Like I’ve said in other posts: would you spin a wheel of fortune with, let’s say, 50% probability of Heaven, and 50% probability of extinction or worse?
Let me tell you that I wouldn’t spin that wheel, not even with a 5% probability of bad outcomes only. Alignment is about making sure that we reduce that probability to a low as we can. The stakes are super high.
And if like me you place a low probability of acceptable outcomes without alignment solved, then it becomes even more imperative.
Hell yes if it’s 50% chance of heaven vs extinction.
Significant chances of Hell, maybe I take the nice safe extinction option if available.
“Significant chances of Hell, maybe I take the nice safe extinction option if available.”
The problem is that it isn’t available. Plus realistically speaking the good outcome percentage is way below 50% without alignment solved.