We can expect some small regions will make it out with sub 1% but I think there’s a 90% chance at least 4% of the US will be antibody positive from exposure (with or without severe symptoms) after a year
That sounds exactly right.
(and a 90% chance no more than 60% will)
I’d say you can go up to 97% for that.
I think the median will be somewhere around 10% of the US population very roughly and that’s why I disagreed with the OP. It’s unlikely I’d change my mind too drastically about those numbers, at least not in the near future and without new info.
*Update from the future (2021):* Turns out I was too confident here. I don’t think 60% of the people in the US got infected, but the numbers are not too far off now. Not living in the US it took me really long to notice how poorly things were going to go.
That sounds exactly right.
I’d say you can go up to 97% for that.
I think the median will be somewhere around 10% of the US population very roughly and that’s why I disagreed with the OP. It’s unlikely I’d change my mind too drastically about those numbers, at least not in the near future and without new info.
*Update from the future (2021):* Turns out I was too confident here. I don’t think 60% of the people in the US got infected, but the numbers are not too far off now. Not living in the US it took me really long to notice how poorly things were going to go.