I think you should update, regarding Putin’s rationality.
His recent miscalculations are not just unpredictable mistakes that anyone can do. They are part of systemic issues rooted in the way he was running the country for 20 years. Optimizing loyalty instead of competence, enabling corruption, getting rid of independent public institutions, propagating informational war epistemology and as a result disregarding any critique as fake news and falling for your own propaganda.
A rational agent who just wanted to be a successful cleptocrat could have behaved mostly the way Putin did until now. They would still not fall for their own propaganda and know that all the talk about restoring Russia’s former glory is just a narrative to cheaply assert the support of their core demographic. A rational agent who actually wanted to restore Russia to its former glory would have been behaving completely different through out these 20 years. A rational agent who somehow wanted both would have at least made really sure to have the military being capable.
I think you should update, regarding Putin’s rationality.
His recent miscalculations are not just unpredictable mistakes that anyone can do. They are part of systemic issues rooted in the way he was running the country for 20 years. Optimizing loyalty instead of competence, enabling corruption, getting rid of independent public institutions, propagating informational war epistemology and as a result disregarding any critique as fake news and falling for your own propaganda.
A rational agent who just wanted to be a successful cleptocrat could have behaved mostly the way Putin did until now. They would still not fall for their own propaganda and know that all the talk about restoring Russia’s former glory is just a narrative to cheaply assert the support of their core demographic. A rational agent who actually wanted to restore Russia to its former glory would have been behaving completely different through out these 20 years. A rational agent who somehow wanted both would have at least made really sure to have the military being capable.