Here’s what I’ll be putting in the Alignment Newsletter about this piece. Let me know if you spot inaccuracies or lingering disagreement regarding the opinion section.
Summary:
This post lists three historical examples of how small human groups conquered large parts of the world, and shows how they are arguably precedents for AI takeover scenarios. The first two historical examples are the conquests of American civilizations by Hernán Cortés and Francisco Pizarro in the early 16th century. The third example is the Portugese capture of key Indian Ocean trading ports, which happened at roughly the same time as the other conquests. Daniel argues that technological and strategic advantages were the likely causes of these European victories. However, since a European technological advantage was small in this period, we might expect that an AI coalition could similarly take over a large portion of the world, even without a large technological advantage.
Opinion:
In a comment, I dispute the claimed reasons for why Europeans conquered American civilizations. I think that a large body of historical literature supports the conclusion that American civilizations fell primarily because of their exposure to diseases which they lacked immunity to, rather than because of European military power. I also think that this helps explain why Portugal was “only” able to capture Indian Ocean trading ports during this time period, rather than whole civilizations. I think the primary insight here should instead be that pandemics can kill large groups of humans, and therefore it would be worth exploring the possibility that AI systems use pandemics as a mechanism to kill large numbers of biological humans.
Thanks! Well, I still disagree with your opinion on it, for reasons mentioned above. To the point about “only” conquering ports, well, I think my explanations fit fine with that too—the technological and experience advantages that (I claim) enabled Afonso to win were primarily naval in nature. Later, other Europeans would come along with other advantages, and they would conquer India, Persia, Vietnam, etc., evidence that while disease was a contributing factor (I certainly am not denying it helped!) it wasn’t so important a factor as to render my conclusion invalid (my conclusion, again, is that a moderate technological and strategic advantage can enable a small group to take over a large region.)
Later, other Europeans would come along with other advantages, and they would conquer India, Persia, Vietnam, etc., evidence that while disease was a contributing factor (I certainly am not denying it helped!) it wasn’t so important a factor as to render my conclusion invalid (my conclusion, again, is that a moderate technological and strategic advantage can enable a small group to take over a large region.)
Europeans conquered places such as India, but that was centuries later, after they had a large technological advantage, and they also didn’t come with just a few warships either: they came with vast armadas. I don’t see why that supports the point that a small group can take over a large region?
The vast armadas were the result of successful colonization, not the cause of it. For example, a key battle that the British EIC won (enabling them to take over their first major territory) was the battle of Plassey, and they were significantly outnumbered during it.
Fair point about the large technological advantage, but… actually it still wasn’t that large? I don’t know, I’d have to look into it more, but my guess is that the tech advantage of the EIC over the Nawab at Plassey, to use the same example, was smaller than the tech advantage of Cortes and Pizarro over the Americans.
I should go find out how many men the EIC had when it conquered India. I’m betting that the answer is “Far fewer than India had.” And also, yeah, didn’t the British steal rocket technology from India? (Mysore, I think?) That’s one military important technology that they were actually behind in.
Here’s what I’ll be putting in the Alignment Newsletter about this piece. Let me know if you spot inaccuracies or lingering disagreement regarding the opinion section.
Summary:
Opinion:
Thanks! Well, I still disagree with your opinion on it, for reasons mentioned above. To the point about “only” conquering ports, well, I think my explanations fit fine with that too—the technological and experience advantages that (I claim) enabled Afonso to win were primarily naval in nature. Later, other Europeans would come along with other advantages, and they would conquer India, Persia, Vietnam, etc., evidence that while disease was a contributing factor (I certainly am not denying it helped!) it wasn’t so important a factor as to render my conclusion invalid (my conclusion, again, is that a moderate technological and strategic advantage can enable a small group to take over a large region.)
Europeans conquered places such as India, but that was centuries later, after they had a large technological advantage, and they also didn’t come with just a few warships either: they came with vast armadas. I don’t see why that supports the point that a small group can take over a large region?
The vast armadas were the result of successful colonization, not the cause of it. For example, a key battle that the British EIC won (enabling them to take over their first major territory) was the battle of Plassey, and they were significantly outnumbered during it.
Fair point about the large technological advantage, but… actually it still wasn’t that large? I don’t know, I’d have to look into it more, but my guess is that the tech advantage of the EIC over the Nawab at Plassey, to use the same example, was smaller than the tech advantage of Cortes and Pizarro over the Americans.
I should go find out how many men the EIC had when it conquered India. I’m betting that the answer is “Far fewer than India had.” And also, yeah, didn’t the British steal rocket technology from India? (Mysore, I think?) That’s one military important technology that they were actually behind in.