Japan was in a similar predicament in the mid-1850s, but successfully managed not only to survive but to thrive, modernizing their economy and military to Western levels without suffering regime change in the process.
What explains their success? It’s not that the technological gap between them and Western powers was smaller than the technological gap between the conquistadors and their victims. (I think.) Rather, it’s that there was no “diplomatic and strategic cunning” gap, and that was because there was no experience gap. Japan had been economically and militarily isolated from the rest of the world, but it had been watching developments around the world with keen interest via reports from the few Dutch and Chinese visitors it allowed into the Nagasaki port. For example, the Japanese government knew about Perry’s expedition before it arrived, thanks to a tip from the Dutch. So when Perry arrived to force Japan open, the Japanese government was as well-informed as he was.
Fun fact: I predicted, after writing the above paragraph, that the Japanese emperor would not have gone anywhere near Perry for the negotiation. (Remember Cortes and Pizarro?) Sure enough, this was correct—well actually the emperor was a figurehead at the time, but the man in charge stayed well away from the American visitors.
To be clear, I don’t want to lean too heavily on this explanation. I think it’s probably not even the main explanation; I wouldn’t be surprised if more unity within Japan, or less rapaciousness within America at the time (or at least in Perry?), were bigger factors. I haven’t done much reading on the topic. But I would bet that the lack of an experience gap played some role at least.
Japan was not unified particularly at all, there was a low intensity civil war within ten years that created the government which drove the modernization effort.
Another thought:
Japan was in a similar predicament in the mid-1850s, but successfully managed not only to survive but to thrive, modernizing their economy and military to Western levels without suffering regime change in the process.
What explains their success? It’s not that the technological gap between them and Western powers was smaller than the technological gap between the conquistadors and their victims. (I think.) Rather, it’s that there was no “diplomatic and strategic cunning” gap, and that was because there was no experience gap. Japan had been economically and militarily isolated from the rest of the world, but it had been watching developments around the world with keen interest via reports from the few Dutch and Chinese visitors it allowed into the Nagasaki port. For example, the Japanese government knew about Perry’s expedition before it arrived, thanks to a tip from the Dutch. So when Perry arrived to force Japan open, the Japanese government was as well-informed as he was.
Fun fact: I predicted, after writing the above paragraph, that the Japanese emperor would not have gone anywhere near Perry for the negotiation. (Remember Cortes and Pizarro?) Sure enough, this was correct—well actually the emperor was a figurehead at the time, but the man in charge stayed well away from the American visitors.
To be clear, I don’t want to lean too heavily on this explanation. I think it’s probably not even the main explanation; I wouldn’t be surprised if more unity within Japan, or less rapaciousness within America at the time (or at least in Perry?), were bigger factors. I haven’t done much reading on the topic. But I would bet that the lack of an experience gap played some role at least.
Japan was not unified particularly at all, there was a low intensity civil war within ten years that created the government which drove the modernization effort.
OK, interesting! I’d love to hear more about what explains the difference. My “experience” theory is looking good so far.