In Italy, with almost 10k deaths it would be 0.02%-0.04%
There’s an Italian village where 0.1% of the population already died with a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19. Inferring from typical monthly death rates it’s also estimated that the twice as many people died from Covid-19 in that village without an official diagnosis. There’s a bunch of uncertainty about those additional 0.2%, but it would put the fatality rate at 0.3% already. And those figures are from 4 days ago (edit: 6 days ago actually).
This is a non-random village in Italy, so of course, some villages in Italy will show very high mortality just by chance.
It’s extremely implausible that it would be 10x or 15x higher than what’s expected for the typical Italian village. Besides, other villages like Cremona or Bergamo also seem to be close to those numbers. Smoking or age structure or air pollution doesn’t give you a 10x update.
UPDATE: Wow, I was totally wrong about those being villages. As Stefan Schubert pointed out, those are cities and provinces with tens and hundreds of thousands of inhabitants!
Thanks, Lukas. I only saw this now. I made a more substantive comment elsewhere in this thread. Lodi is not a village, it’s a province with 230K inhabitants, as are Cremona (360K) and Bergamo (1.11M). (Though note that all these names are also names of the central town in these provinces.)
There’s an Italian village where 0.1% of the population already died with a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19. Inferring from typical monthly death rates it’s also estimated that the twice as many people died from Covid-19 in that village without an official diagnosis. There’s a bunch of uncertainty about those additional 0.2%, but it would put the fatality rate at 0.3% already. And those figures are from 4 days ago (edit: 6 days ago actually).
Edit: It’s a province and city(!), not a village.
I do not think that can be used as decisive evidence to falsify wide-spread.
This is a non-random village in Italy, so of course, some villages in Italy will show very high mortality just by chance.
That region of Italy has high smoking rates, very bad air pollution, and the highest age structure outside of Japan.
It’s extremely implausible that it would be 10x or 15x higher than what’s expected for the typical Italian village. Besides, other villages like Cremona or Bergamo also seem to be close to those numbers. Smoking or age structure or air pollution doesn’t give you a 10x update.
UPDATE: Wow, I was totally wrong about those being villages. As Stefan Schubert pointed out, those are cities and provinces with tens and hundreds of thousands of inhabitants!
Thanks, Lukas. I only saw this now. I made a more substantive comment elsewhere in this thread. Lodi is not a village, it’s a province with 230K inhabitants, as are Cremona (360K) and Bergamo (1.11M). (Though note that all these names are also names of the central town in these provinces.)