Median age on DM is 62 (basically, 50 per cent above 62). Most of the deaths were in people above 70.
In 2017, about 16 percent of the American population was 65 years old or over.
So, any DM mortality should be divided on 3 to get US mortality, given medical care will be available. If it will not be available, almost all critical care patients will die.
45 passengers of DM who were critical is 1.2 per cent of all 3700 DM passengers (I take all passengers’ number, not only infected ones, as it gives some estimation of the attack rate, that is the proportion of infected to those who escape infection, either via natural immunity or self-isolation. In US there will be many people, who will escape infection, via strong immunity, isolation, luck or very short asymptomatic illness—so short that it can’t be find via PCR).
Divided on 3, it gives 0.4 per cent of US population will die, or around 1.3 million people.
Median age on DM is 62 (basically, 50 per cent above 62). Most of the deaths were in people above 70.
In 2017, about 16 percent of the American population was 65 years old or over.
So, any DM mortality should be divided on 3 to get US mortality, given medical care will be available. If it will not be available, almost all critical care patients will die.
45 passengers of DM who were critical is 1.2 per cent of all 3700 DM passengers (I take all passengers’ number, not only infected ones, as it gives some estimation of the attack rate, that is the proportion of infected to those who escape infection, either via natural immunity or self-isolation. In US there will be many people, who will escape infection, via strong immunity, isolation, luck or very short asymptomatic illness—so short that it can’t be find via PCR).
Divided on 3, it gives 0.4 per cent of US population will die, or around 1.3 million people.
Cruise Ship passenger are a non random sample with perhaps higher co-morbidities.
The cruise ships analysed are non-random sample: “at least 25 other cruise ships have confirmed COVID-19 cases”
Being on a cruise ship might increase your risk because of dose response https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1242655704663691264
Onboard IFR. as 1.2% (0.38-2.7%) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2
Ioannidis: “A whole country is not a ship.”