Thanks! I agree that there’s more hype around AI right now than, say, semiconductors or batteries or solar panels. And more importantly, right around the time of AGI there’ll plausibly be more hype around AI than around anything ever. So I’ll concede that in this one way, we have reason to think that R&D resources will be allocated less efficiently than usual in the case of AGI. I don’t think this is going to significantly change the bottom line though—to the point where if it wildly changes the results in Tom’s model I’d take that as a reason to doubt Tom’s model.
Thanks! I agree that there’s more hype around AI right now than, say, semiconductors or batteries or solar panels. And more importantly, right around the time of AGI there’ll plausibly be more hype around AI than around anything ever. So I’ll concede that in this one way, we have reason to think that R&D resources will be allocated less efficiently than usual in the case of AGI. I don’t think this is going to significantly change the bottom line though—to the point where if it wildly changes the results in Tom’s model I’d take that as a reason to doubt Tom’s model.