After the stay-at-home orders started (~22 March) we no longer expect to see exponential growth in actual infections so the delay between infections and cases identified causes there to be a varying ratio between them.
Add that to the fact that the testing rate was the main thing controlling how many cases were identified which messes everything up. In late March/early April the positive rate of tests in New York was ~50% which renders the numbers fairly meaningless.
After the stay-at-home orders started (~22 March) we no longer expect to see exponential growth in actual infections so the delay between infections and cases identified causes there to be a varying ratio between them.
Add that to the fact that the testing rate was the main thing controlling how many cases were identified which messes everything up. In late March/early April the positive rate of tests in New York was ~50% which renders the numbers fairly meaningless.