I’m still very much confused by what is going on in the US and elsewhere. Here is my basic estimate:
The US had 2000 deaths on April 7. if 1% people die 3 weeks after being infected, it means that around March 17 there were 200,000 new infections, almost 10 times the official count. The confirmed cases then increased at least 10 times two weeks later, around April 1. It should imply that the likely infection count was also up ten times, to maybe 2,000,000 cases a day. Which would mean 20,000 deaths 3 weeks after that, so right about now. Yet the official numbers are just over 2,000 deaths a day.
So, I do not understand what is going on. And I don’t know which input numbers are off. Or which assumptions.
After the stay-at-home orders started (~22 March) we no longer expect to see exponential growth in actual infections so the delay between infections and cases identified causes there to be a varying ratio between them.
Add that to the fact that the testing rate was the main thing controlling how many cases were identified which messes everything up. In late March/early April the positive rate of tests in New York was ~50% which renders the numbers fairly meaningless.
I’m still very much confused by what is going on in the US and elsewhere. Here is my basic estimate:
The US had 2000 deaths on April 7. if 1% people die 3 weeks after being infected, it means that around March 17 there were 200,000 new infections, almost 10 times the official count. The confirmed cases then increased at least 10 times two weeks later, around April 1. It should imply that the likely infection count was also up ten times, to maybe 2,000,000 cases a day. Which would mean 20,000 deaths 3 weeks after that, so right about now. Yet the official numbers are just over 2,000 deaths a day.
So, I do not understand what is going on. And I don’t know which input numbers are off. Or which assumptions.
After the stay-at-home orders started (~22 March) we no longer expect to see exponential growth in actual infections so the delay between infections and cases identified causes there to be a varying ratio between them.
Add that to the fact that the testing rate was the main thing controlling how many cases were identified which messes everything up. In late March/early April the positive rate of tests in New York was ~50% which renders the numbers fairly meaningless.