(Edited because I don’t think my original terse reply made my thoughts on this very clear)
If we’re in a (very) long timeline world, I suspect the default thing that ends up happening is that embryo selection is gradually adopted, and G slowly rises population-wide. The reason timelines are long in such a world is that AGI ended up being way harder than it currently looks, so the gradually rising G levels would indeed increase the probability that unaligned AGI is created, unless this somewhat-higher-G world also manages to get large scale coordination right (don’t hold your breath). Alignment research would directly benefit from more capable researchers, and would probably benefit from far greater public awareness than it currently receives (due to generally higher sanity and also just more time for the ideas to percolate into the mainstream), which in turn means far more researchers working on it. People in alignment-aware communities would likely be early adopters of embryo selection, which could give alignment a head start (this is one strategy we might wish to consider: the point of my post was to get us to start thinking about these sorts of strategies).
If we’re only in a medium~longish timeline world (AGI in the latter half of this century, say) then there won’t be enough time for this sort of large scale adoption: a quick G boosting intervention would be used by a small group of early-adopters long before it catches on more broadly. So, strategically, we’d want to be thinking about making sure that the “small group of early-adopters” is alignment-aware.
(Edited because I don’t think my original terse reply made my thoughts on this very clear)
If we’re in a (very) long timeline world, I suspect the default thing that ends up happening is that embryo selection is gradually adopted, and G slowly rises population-wide. The reason timelines are long in such a world is that AGI ended up being way harder than it currently looks, so the gradually rising G levels would indeed increase the probability that unaligned AGI is created, unless this somewhat-higher-G world also manages to get large scale coordination right (don’t hold your breath). Alignment research would directly benefit from more capable researchers, and would probably benefit from far greater public awareness than it currently receives (due to generally higher sanity and also just more time for the ideas to percolate into the mainstream), which in turn means far more researchers working on it. People in alignment-aware communities would likely be early adopters of embryo selection, which could give alignment a head start (this is one strategy we might wish to consider: the point of my post was to get us to start thinking about these sorts of strategies).
If we’re only in a medium~longish timeline world (AGI in the latter half of this century, say) then there won’t be enough time for this sort of large scale adoption: a quick G boosting intervention would be used by a small group of early-adopters long before it catches on more broadly. So, strategically, we’d want to be thinking about making sure that the “small group of early-adopters” is alignment-aware.