more useful to simply take the stance “I don’t know”
if your beliefs are coherent they imply an underlying probabilistic model
Decision making motivates having some way of conditioning beliefs on influence at given points of intervention, that’s how you estimate the consequences of those interventions and their desirability. To take a stance of “don’t know” seems to me analogous to considering how a world model varies with (depends on) the thing you don’t know, how it depends on what it turns out to be, or on what the credences about the facts surrounding it are.
Decision making motivates having some way of conditioning beliefs on influence at given points of intervention, that’s how you estimate the consequences of those interventions and their desirability. To take a stance of “don’t know” seems to me analogous to considering how a world model varies with (depends on) the thing you don’t know, how it depends on what it turns out to be, or on what the credences about the facts surrounding it are.