From my internal perspective, the truth-as-I-experience-it is that I’m annoyed when people raise the topic because it’s all wasted motion, the question sets up a trap that forces you into appearing arrogant, and I honestly think that “Screw all this, I’m just going to go ahead and do it and you can debate afterward what the probabilities were” is a perfectly reasonable response.
From the perspective of folks choosing between supporting multiple lines of AI risk reduction effort, of which MIRI is only one, such probability estimates are not wasted effort.
Though your point about appearing arrogant is well taken. It’s unfortunate that it isn’t socially okay to publicly estimate a high probability of success, or to publicly claim one’s own exceptionalism, when ones impressions point that way. It places a barrier toward honest conversation here.
From my internal perspective, the truth-as-I-experience-it is that I’m annoyed when people raise the topic [of MIRI’s success-odds] because [good reason].
I suspect this annoyance is easily misinterpreted, independent of its actual cause. Most humans respond with annoyance when their plans are criticized. Also, in situations where A has power over B, and where B then shares concerns or criticisms about A’s plans, and where A responds with annoyance or with avoidance of such conversation… B is apt to respond (as I did) by being a bit hesitant to bring the topic up, and by also wondering if A is being defensive.
I’m not saying I was correct here. I’m also not sure what the fix is. But it might be worth setting a 1-minute timer and brainstorming or something.
From my internal perspective, the truth-as-I-experience-it is that I’m annoyed when people raise the topic because it’s all wasted motion, the question sets up a trap that forces you into appearing arrogant, and I honestly think that “Screw all this, I’m just going to go ahead and do it and you can debate afterward what the probabilities were” is a perfectly reasonable response.
From the perspective of folks choosing between supporting multiple lines of AI risk reduction effort, of which MIRI is only one, such probability estimates are not wasted effort.
Though your point about appearing arrogant is well taken. It’s unfortunate that it isn’t socially okay to publicly estimate a high probability of success, or to publicly claim one’s own exceptionalism, when ones impressions point that way. It places a barrier toward honest conversation here.
I suspect this annoyance is easily misinterpreted, independent of its actual cause. Most humans respond with annoyance when their plans are criticized. Also, in situations where A has power over B, and where B then shares concerns or criticisms about A’s plans, and where A responds with annoyance or with avoidance of such conversation… B is apt to respond (as I did) by being a bit hesitant to bring the topic up, and by also wondering if A is being defensive.
I’m not saying I was correct here. I’m also not sure what the fix is. But it might be worth setting a 1-minute timer and brainstorming or something.