From the perspective of folks choosing between supporting multiple lines of AI risk reduction effort, of which MIRI is only one, such probability estimates are not wasted effort.
Though your point about appearing arrogant is well taken. It’s unfortunate that it isn’t socially okay to publicly estimate a high probability of success, or to publicly claim one’s own exceptionalism, when ones impressions point that way. It places a barrier toward honest conversation here.
From the perspective of folks choosing between supporting multiple lines of AI risk reduction effort, of which MIRI is only one, such probability estimates are not wasted effort.
Though your point about appearing arrogant is well taken. It’s unfortunate that it isn’t socially okay to publicly estimate a high probability of success, or to publicly claim one’s own exceptionalism, when ones impressions point that way. It places a barrier toward honest conversation here.