the numbers you extract will be badly inaccurate most of the time
As its the case with an myopic view on any Bayesian inference process that involves a lot of noise. The question is just whether rationality is about removing the noise, or whether it is about something else; whether “rationality is more than ‘Bayesian updating’”. I do not think we can answer this question very satisfyingly yet.
I tend to think what Cumming says is akin to saying something like: “Optimal evolution is not about adapting according to Bayes rule, because look at just how complicated gene expression is! See, evolution works by stories encoded in G, A, C and T, and most of them get passed on even though they do not immediately help the individual!”
As its the case with an myopic view on any Bayesian inference process that involves a lot of noise. The question is just whether rationality is about removing the noise, or whether it is about something else; whether “rationality is more than ‘Bayesian updating’”. I do not think we can answer this question very satisfyingly yet.
I tend to think what Cumming says is akin to saying something like: “Optimal evolution is not about adapting according to Bayes rule, because look at just how complicated gene expression is! See, evolution works by stories encoded in G, A, C and T, and most of them get passed on even though they do not immediately help the individual!”