In the limit of time and information, natural selection, memetic propagation, and Bayesian inference all converge on the same result. (Probably(?))
In reality, in observable timeframes, given realistic conditions, neither natural selection nor memetic propagation will converge on Bayesian inference; if you try to model evolution or memetic propagation with Bayesian inference, you will usually be badly wrong, and sometimes catastrophically so; if you expect to be able to extract something like a Bayes score by observing the movement of a meme or gene through a population, the numbers you extract will be badly inaccurate most of the time.
Both of the above are true. I think you are saying the first one, while I am focusing on the second one. Do you agree? If so, our disagreement is a boring semantic one.
the numbers you extract will be badly inaccurate most of the time
As its the case with an myopic view on any Bayesian inference process that involves a lot of noise. The question is just whether rationality is about removing the noise, or whether it is about something else; whether “rationality is more than ‘Bayesian updating’”. I do not think we can answer this question very satisfyingly yet.
I tend to think what Cumming says is akin to saying something like: “Optimal evolution is not about adapting according to Bayes rule, because look at just how complicated gene expression is! See, evolution works by stories encoded in G, A, C and T, and most of them get passed on even though they do not immediately help the individual!”
Let’s taboo “identical”.
In the limit of time and information, natural selection, memetic propagation, and Bayesian inference all converge on the same result. (Probably(?))
In reality, in observable timeframes, given realistic conditions, neither natural selection nor memetic propagation will converge on Bayesian inference; if you try to model evolution or memetic propagation with Bayesian inference, you will usually be badly wrong, and sometimes catastrophically so; if you expect to be able to extract something like a Bayes score by observing the movement of a meme or gene through a population, the numbers you extract will be badly inaccurate most of the time.
Both of the above are true. I think you are saying the first one, while I am focusing on the second one. Do you agree? If so, our disagreement is a boring semantic one.
As its the case with an myopic view on any Bayesian inference process that involves a lot of noise. The question is just whether rationality is about removing the noise, or whether it is about something else; whether “rationality is more than ‘Bayesian updating’”. I do not think we can answer this question very satisfyingly yet.
I tend to think what Cumming says is akin to saying something like: “Optimal evolution is not about adapting according to Bayes rule, because look at just how complicated gene expression is! See, evolution works by stories encoded in G, A, C and T, and most of them get passed on even though they do not immediately help the individual!”