It’s not clear to me what direction of update your additional model considerations call for.
Holding relections takes some time
Sorry, I was unclear. The choices are “Call new election in December” or “Call new election in March”. The PM does stay in office until the election is over, but the question is when it starts.
You can’t decide based on one data point that you got it wrong.
Well, at any rate I updated in the direction opposite of what actually happened. You are of course correct that this is not necessarily wrong, but it should at least tickle your oops-detector.
Sorry, I was unclear. The choices are “Call new election in December” or “Call new election in March”. The PM does stay in office until the election is over, but the question is when it starts.
You can’t simply call a election next week. The process of holding an election takes time. 3 months seems to me a reasonable timeframe to prepare an election.
It’s not clear to me what direction of update your additional model considerations call for.
Sorry, I was unclear. The choices are “Call new election in December” or “Call new election in March”. The PM does stay in office until the election is over, but the question is when it starts.
Well, at any rate I updated in the direction opposite of what actually happened. You are of course correct that this is not necessarily wrong, but it should at least tickle your oops-detector.
You can’t simply call a election next week. The process of holding an election takes time. 3 months seems to me a reasonable timeframe to prepare an election.