In your model of the decision you only have two actors, the prime minister and his opponents. In the real world you have more actors. In the real world there are more than two different actors. Within the party of the prime minister there’s somebody else who’s going to take power of the party when the prime minister stepped down.
That other person might have made a deal with the prime minister that he succeeds the prime minister if he in return steps down within three months.
Different opposition groups might compete with each other over being the central opposition group. There are foreign countries that have interests.
Holding relections takes some time and if a prime minister stays 3 months in office till you have relections, what’s the problem? You don’t want months without a prime minister.
The question is not hypothetical: I was faced with precisely this problem in December, and got it wrong.
You can’t decide based on one data point that you got it wrong.
It’s not clear to me what direction of update your additional model considerations call for.
Holding relections takes some time
Sorry, I was unclear. The choices are “Call new election in December” or “Call new election in March”. The PM does stay in office until the election is over, but the question is when it starts.
You can’t decide based on one data point that you got it wrong.
Well, at any rate I updated in the direction opposite of what actually happened. You are of course correct that this is not necessarily wrong, but it should at least tickle your oops-detector.
Sorry, I was unclear. The choices are “Call new election in December” or “Call new election in March”. The PM does stay in office until the election is over, but the question is when it starts.
You can’t simply call a election next week. The process of holding an election takes time. 3 months seems to me a reasonable timeframe to prepare an election.
In your model of the decision you only have two actors, the prime minister and his opponents. In the real world you have more actors. In the real world there are more than two different actors. Within the party of the prime minister there’s somebody else who’s going to take power of the party when the prime minister stepped down.
That other person might have made a deal with the prime minister that he succeeds the prime minister if he in return steps down within three months.
Different opposition groups might compete with each other over being the central opposition group. There are foreign countries that have interests.
Holding relections takes some time and if a prime minister stays 3 months in office till you have relections, what’s the problem? You don’t want months without a prime minister.
You can’t decide based on one data point that you got it wrong.
It’s not clear to me what direction of update your additional model considerations call for.
Sorry, I was unclear. The choices are “Call new election in December” or “Call new election in March”. The PM does stay in office until the election is over, but the question is when it starts.
Well, at any rate I updated in the direction opposite of what actually happened. You are of course correct that this is not necessarily wrong, but it should at least tickle your oops-detector.
You can’t simply call a election next week. The process of holding an election takes time. 3 months seems to me a reasonable timeframe to prepare an election.