Just to make clear what specific idea this is about: Wei points out that researching FAI might increase UFAI risk, and suggests that therefore FAI shouldn’t be researched. My reply is to the effect that while FAI research might increase UFAI risk within any given number of years, it also decreases the risk of never solving FAI (which IIRC I put at something like 95% if we research it pre-WBE, and 97% if we don’t).
Just to make clear what specific idea this is about: Wei points out that researching FAI might increase UFAI risk, and suggests that therefore FAI shouldn’t be researched. My reply is to the effect that while FAI research might increase UFAI risk within any given number of years, it also decreases the risk of never solving FAI (which IIRC I put at something like 95% if we research it pre-WBE, and 97% if we don’t).
When I have analyzed this problem previously my reasoning matched that listed by Nesov here.