Hey Kevin, thanks for pinging me, sounds exciting. I’d bet Knox’s odds are only somewhat better than the average guilty defendant of release on appeal, that “somewhat better” based on her having a more expensive legal and PR team than the average defendant. Can’t find such info easily though, I’ll google around tonight. Wikipedia says we’re still on the first of the two mandatory appeals, do you mean released on the first appeal or on any appeal? What if it’s remanded back to the lower court? Also, I assume you mean ‘released on the murder charge’, not on libel (although that might be “time served” anyway by that time.)
For tax purposes, wagering a charity donation would probably be better, but cash might be doable, I’ll need to think about it. Let me anyway research tonight how favorable p(successful appeal | guilt) looks to me.
That said, from a “getting to the truth” perspective, I still think a 1-on-1 debate is a better way of getting to the truth in the Kercher case than this wager, given the additional uncertainty of p(successful appeal | guilt).
Wikipedia says we’re still on the first of the two mandatory appeals, do you mean released on the first appeal or on any appeal?
My PredictionBook prediction was for the current (first) appeal (I specified “appeals court in Perugia”; the second appeal takes place in Rome).
That said, from a “getting to the truth” perspective, I still think a 1-on-1 debate is a better way of getting to the truth in the Kercher case than this wager, given the additional uncertainty of p(successful appeal | guilt).
I agree. Although there should be at least some correlation between court verdicts and reality, a LW-style discussion would be much richer in information content.
Hey Kevin, thanks for pinging me, sounds exciting. I’d bet Knox’s odds are only somewhat better than the average guilty defendant of release on appeal, that “somewhat better” based on her having a more expensive legal and PR team than the average defendant. Can’t find such info easily though, I’ll google around tonight. Wikipedia says we’re still on the first of the two mandatory appeals, do you mean released on the first appeal or on any appeal? What if it’s remanded back to the lower court? Also, I assume you mean ‘released on the murder charge’, not on libel (although that might be “time served” anyway by that time.)
For tax purposes, wagering a charity donation would probably be better, but cash might be doable, I’ll need to think about it. Let me anyway research tonight how favorable p(successful appeal | guilt) looks to me.
That said, from a “getting to the truth” perspective, I still think a 1-on-1 debate is a better way of getting to the truth in the Kercher case than this wager, given the additional uncertainty of p(successful appeal | guilt).
My PredictionBook prediction was for the current (first) appeal (I specified “appeals court in Perugia”; the second appeal takes place in Rome).
I agree. Although there should be at least some correlation between court verdicts and reality, a LW-style discussion would be much richer in information content.