Wikipedia says we’re still on the first of the two mandatory appeals, do you mean released on the first appeal or on any appeal?
My PredictionBook prediction was for the current (first) appeal (I specified “appeals court in Perugia”; the second appeal takes place in Rome).
That said, from a “getting to the truth” perspective, I still think a 1-on-1 debate is a better way of getting to the truth in the Kercher case than this wager, given the additional uncertainty of p(successful appeal | guilt).
I agree. Although there should be at least some correlation between court verdicts and reality, a LW-style discussion would be much richer in information content.
My PredictionBook prediction was for the current (first) appeal (I specified “appeals court in Perugia”; the second appeal takes place in Rome).
I agree. Although there should be at least some correlation between court verdicts and reality, a LW-style discussion would be much richer in information content.