This might get me blasted off the face of the Internet, but by my (admittedly primitive) calculations, there is a >95% chance that I will live to see the end of the world as we know it, whether that be a positive or negative end. I do not see any reason to sign up for cryonics, as it will merely constitute a drain on my currently available resources with no tangible benefit. I am further unconvinced that cryonics is a legitimate industry. I am, of course, open to argument, but I really can’t see cryonics as something that would rationally inspire this sort of reaction.
I’m curious as to how you calculate that >95%. I ask because I, personally, overestimated the threats from what amounts to unfriendly AI at two points in time (during the Japanese 5th generation computer project, and during Lenat’s CYC project), and I overestimated the threat from y2k (and I thought I had a solid lower bound on its effects from unprepared sectors of the economy at the time). Might you be doing something similar?
Full disclosure: I have cryonics arrangements in place (with Alcor), but I’m unsure whether the odds of actually being revived or uploaded justify the (admittedly small) costs. Since I’ve signed up (around 1990 or so) I’ve revised my guess as to the odds downwards for a couple of reasons: (a) full Drexler/Merkle nanotech is taking much longer to be developed than I’d have guessed—“never” is still a distinct possibility (b) If we do get full nanotech, Robin Hanson’s malthusian scenario of exploding upload replication looks chillingly plausible (c) During the Bush years, biodeathicists like Leon Kass actually got positions in high places. I’d anticipated that life extension might be a very hard technical problem—but not that there would be people in power actively trying to stop it.
Japan and China have huge aging populations. Their incentive to develop life extension treatments will be much greater than the biodeathicists ability to impede the same in the United States.
China is facing a huge aging problem. They are probably the first country to get old before getting rich. if i were in the chinese politburo, I’d be POURING money into life extension research.
Though why Japan already hasn’t done so seems surprising from this viewpoint. Any ideas Why Japan hasn’t poured money into healthspan extension?
As far as I can tell, this so-called Beijing Yong Sheng Academy or Beijing Immortality-Era Economic Research Institute (北京永生时代经济研究院) does not exist either.
The saddest thing about all this is that this guy’s antics have probably poisoned the water for cryonics in China.
This might get me blasted off the face of the Internet, but by my (admittedly primitive) calculations, there is a >95% chance that I will live to see the end of the world as we know it, whether that be a positive or negative end. I do not see any reason to sign up for cryonics, as it will merely constitute a drain on my currently available resources with no tangible benefit.
Probably no tangible benefit, but expected utility? Those few percent, or tenths of a percent, where cryonics saves you are worth a lot (assuming you have values that make cryonics worth considering in the first place).
(Full disclosure: I’m not signed up, but only because I think cryonics costs would come from the same “far-mode speculative futurism” mental account as better uses of money, rather than “luxury consumption”. If not for that consideration — which I’m not all that sure about in any case — the decision would be massively overdetermined.)
(assuming you have values that make cryonics worth considering in the first place)
Do you believe in having non-human-universal values, just because of believing you do or even because of having learned to follow them? Can you elaborate?
I’ve yet to be convinced by the arguments for cryonics either. Given my age and health there’s a < 1% chance that I will die in the next 20 years. There are numerous reasons why cryonics could fail and I estimate the chances of it succeeding at < 10%. The events that would make it more likely to succeed will also tend to make my survival without cryonics more likely. Overall I don’t find the cost/benefit very compelling. The weirdness of it (contra the theme of Eliezer’s post) is a factor as well.
Well, life insurance by necessity does not give fair odds but I take your point.
Not telling anybody doesn’t solve the weirdness factor. I’d feel weird wearing a tin foil hat to prevent the government controlling my mind even if I only did it in secret.
Life insurance companies need to make a profit, but there’s a large gain from trade when you swap the life insurance proceeds for a cryonic suspension(1). The net return on the whole transaction is not necessarily negative.
(1) Though technically, the gain from trade isn’t just from trading money for cryonics, since money has no intrinsic value, just opportunity costs. The gain-from-trade comes from the three steps of (a) working some hours to get money, (b) trade small amounts of money in most Everett branches for large amounts of money in Everett branches where you die, which involves paying some overhead (c) trade life insurance proceeds for many hours in those branches. The gains emerge in steps (a) and (c).
The reason I’m not currently persuaded that cryonics is worth it for me is that it is one of quite a large number of things I could do that have a very low probability of a very large benefit. With cryonics there’s a high level of uncertainty around both the probability of success and the magnitude of the benefit. I don’t have the time or resources to sign up for all such things, nor do I currently have the inclination to devote the resources to investigating all of them thoroughly enough to narrow the uncertainty. Cryonics is hovering around the level where additional research may seem worthwhile whereas, say, buddhism is not. It hasn’t quite crossed the threshold yet however.
Say you survive the next 20 years and say your probability to die in the 20 years hence be < 10%. Would you sign up for cryonics then? If not, what is that probability of death which will make you sign up for cryonics?
PS: How did you come up with the probability of < 1% about your own death?
This might get me blasted off the face of the Internet, but by my (admittedly primitive) calculations, there is a >95% chance that I will live to see the end of the world as we know it, whether that be a positive or negative end. I do not see any reason to sign up for cryonics, as it will merely constitute a drain on my currently available resources with no tangible benefit. I am further unconvinced that cryonics is a legitimate industry. I am, of course, open to argument, but I really can’t see cryonics as something that would rationally inspire this sort of reaction.
I’m curious as to how you calculate that >95%. I ask because I, personally, overestimated the threats from what amounts to unfriendly AI at two points in time (during the Japanese 5th generation computer project, and during Lenat’s CYC project), and I overestimated the threat from y2k (and I thought I had a solid lower bound on its effects from unprepared sectors of the economy at the time). Might you be doing something similar?
Full disclosure: I have cryonics arrangements in place (with Alcor), but I’m unsure whether the odds of actually being revived or uploaded justify the (admittedly small) costs. Since I’ve signed up (around 1990 or so) I’ve revised my guess as to the odds downwards for a couple of reasons: (a) full Drexler/Merkle nanotech is taking much longer to be developed than I’d have guessed—“never” is still a distinct possibility (b) If we do get full nanotech, Robin Hanson’s malthusian scenario of exploding upload replication looks chillingly plausible (c) During the Bush years, biodeathicists like Leon Kass actually got positions in high places. I’d anticipated that life extension might be a very hard technical problem—but not that there would be people in power actively trying to stop it.
Think Global Soreff.
Japan and China have huge aging populations. Their incentive to develop life extension treatments will be much greater than the biodeathicists ability to impede the same in the United States.
China is facing a huge aging problem. They are probably the first country to get old before getting rich. if i were in the chinese politburo, I’d be POURING money into life extension research.
Though why Japan already hasn’t done so seems surprising from this viewpoint. Any ideas Why Japan hasn’t poured money into healthspan extension?
Chinese cryonics? There are rumors, but nothing concrete. http://www.cryonics.org/immortalist/january05/letters.htm
There are better results searching for “人体冷冻法 ”, “人体冷冻学” or “人体冷冻技术”: An article about Alcor (“ah-er-ke”) http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2005-12/13/content_3913137.htm
On a related note, prospects for AGI research in China: http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/ai/chinese-singularity
Someone with working knowledge of hiragana/katakana might try the same for Japanese cryonics?
So who is this “Zheng Kuifei (郑奎飞), President of the Beijing Yong Sheng Academy” from the cryonics.org archives?
One investigative article from the Chinese media is not too flattering. (http://paper.people.com.cn/hqrw/html/2006-11/16/content_12065967.htm) Quite a colorful character—claims to be ‘secretly engaged’ to a famous actress. Right… His interview is also interesting (http://www.people.com.cn/GB/paper447/16692/1469113.html). Google translate should get you the gist of it. He’s filed for lots of singularity-relevant patents too. (http://www.ipexl.com/directory/en/APPLICANT_Zheng_Kuifei.html)
As far as I can tell, this so-called Beijing Yong Sheng Academy or Beijing Immortality-Era Economic Research Institute (北京永生时代经济研究院) does not exist either.
The saddest thing about all this is that this guy’s antics have probably poisoned the water for cryonics in China.
For reference, Alcor in Japanese is (predictably) ｱﾙｺﾙ, according to ja.wikipedia.org.
ETA: relevant resource: http://www.cryonics.jp/index-e.html
Probably no tangible benefit, but expected utility? Those few percent, or tenths of a percent, where cryonics saves you are worth a lot (assuming you have values that make cryonics worth considering in the first place).
(Full disclosure: I’m not signed up, but only because I think cryonics costs would come from the same “far-mode speculative futurism” mental account as better uses of money, rather than “luxury consumption”. If not for that consideration — which I’m not all that sure about in any case — the decision would be massively overdetermined.)
Do you believe in having non-human-universal values, just because of believing you do or even because of having learned to follow them? Can you elaborate?
I’ve yet to be convinced by the arguments for cryonics either. Given my age and health there’s a < 1% chance that I will die in the next 20 years. There are numerous reasons why cryonics could fail and I estimate the chances of it succeeding at < 10%. The events that would make it more likely to succeed will also tend to make my survival without cryonics more likely. Overall I don’t find the cost/benefit very compelling. The weirdness of it (contra the theme of Eliezer’s post) is a factor as well.
But with life insurance you only pay that <1% worth, so it balances out.
If the weirdness is a negative factor, then just don’t tell anybody.
Well, life insurance by necessity does not give fair odds but I take your point.
Not telling anybody doesn’t solve the weirdness factor. I’d feel weird wearing a tin foil hat to prevent the government controlling my mind even if I only did it in secret.
If you know that the weirdness feeling is due to bad reasons, then tell it to go to hell :p
In a world full of crazies the right answer is going to feel weird, so you might as well get used to the feeling.
Life insurance companies need to make a profit, but there’s a large gain from trade when you swap the life insurance proceeds for a cryonic suspension(1). The net return on the whole transaction is not necessarily negative.
(1) Though technically, the gain from trade isn’t just from trading money for cryonics, since money has no intrinsic value, just opportunity costs. The gain-from-trade comes from the three steps of (a) working some hours to get money, (b) trade small amounts of money in most Everett branches for large amounts of money in Everett branches where you die, which involves paying some overhead (c) trade life insurance proceeds for many hours in those branches. The gains emerge in steps (a) and (c).
The reason I’m not currently persuaded that cryonics is worth it for me is that it is one of quite a large number of things I could do that have a very low probability of a very large benefit. With cryonics there’s a high level of uncertainty around both the probability of success and the magnitude of the benefit. I don’t have the time or resources to sign up for all such things, nor do I currently have the inclination to devote the resources to investigating all of them thoroughly enough to narrow the uncertainty. Cryonics is hovering around the level where additional research may seem worthwhile whereas, say, buddhism is not. It hasn’t quite crossed the threshold yet however.
Say you survive the next 20 years and say your probability to die in the 20 years hence be < 10%. Would you sign up for cryonics then? If not, what is that probability of death which will make you sign up for cryonics?
PS: How did you come up with the probability of < 1% about your own death?
http://www.allcountries.org/uscensus/129_death_and_death_rates_by_age.html