There’s a deep, wide difference between strong plausibility and demonstrated truth.
This right here is the root of the disagreement. There is no qualitative difference between a “strong plausibility” and a “demonstrated truth”. Beliefs can only have degrees of plausibility (aka probability) and these degrees never attain certainty. A “demonstrated truth” is just a belief whose negation is extremely implausible.
The problem is that what you call “strong plausibility” is entirely subjective until you bring evidence onto the table, and that’s the point I’m trying to make.
Edit: In other words, I might think cryonics is strongly plausible, but for example, I might also think the existence of gnomes seems pretty plausible, but I don’t believe either one until I see some evidence.
The problem is that what you call “strong plausibility” is entirely subjective until you bring evidence onto the table, and that’s the point I’m trying to make.
A piece of evidence regarding a claim is any information, of whatever sort, that ought to affect the plausibility (aka probability) that you assign to the claim. If that evidence makes the claim “strongly plausible”, then that’s an objective fact about how the laws of probability require you to update on the evidence. There is nothing subjective about it.
In other words, I might think cryonics is strongly plausible, but for example, I might also think the existence of gnomes seems pretty plausible, but I don’t believe either one until I see some evidence.
If you thought that garden gnomes were strongly plausible, then either
you had the misfortune to start with a very inaccurate prior,
you had the misfortune to be exposed to highly misleading evidence, or, most likely,
you failed to apply the rules of probable inference correctly to the evidence you received.
None of these need be the case for you to think that cryonics is plausible enough to justify the expense. That is the difference between cryonics and garden gnomes.
This right here is the root of the disagreement. There is no qualitative difference between a “strong plausibility” and a “demonstrated truth”. Beliefs can only have degrees of plausibility (aka probability) and these degrees never attain certainty. A “demonstrated truth” is just a belief whose negation is extremely implausible.
The problem is that what you call “strong plausibility” is entirely subjective until you bring evidence onto the table, and that’s the point I’m trying to make.
Edit: In other words, I might think cryonics is strongly plausible, but for example, I might also think the existence of gnomes seems pretty plausible, but I don’t believe either one until I see some evidence.
A piece of evidence regarding a claim is any information, of whatever sort, that ought to affect the plausibility (aka probability) that you assign to the claim. If that evidence makes the claim “strongly plausible”, then that’s an objective fact about how the laws of probability require you to update on the evidence. There is nothing subjective about it.
If you thought that garden gnomes were strongly plausible, then either
you had the misfortune to start with a very inaccurate prior,
you had the misfortune to be exposed to highly misleading evidence, or, most likely,
you failed to apply the rules of probable inference correctly to the evidence you received.
None of these need be the case for you to think that cryonics is plausible enough to justify the expense. That is the difference between cryonics and garden gnomes.