But saying “I’m not sure of the chances, therefore I’ll go with the less weird-sounding choice, or the one that doesn’t require any present effort on my part” is an unsound heuristic in general.
I might be missing a bit of jargon here, but what would it mean for a heuristic to be “unsound”? Do you mean it performs badly against other competing heuristics?
It sounds to me like a heuristic that should work pretty well, and I’m not sure of any heuristic that is as simple but works better for general cases. It seems to be the same caliber as “gambling money is bad”.
I might be missing a bit of jargon here, but what would it mean for a heuristic to be “unsound”? Do you mean it performs badly against other competing heuristics?
It sounds to me like a heuristic that should work pretty well, and I’m not sure of any heuristic that is as simple but works better for general cases. It seems to be the same caliber as “gambling money is bad”.