I also have a following question: which order of transitions will imply that Earth is nor rare? One answer is that time until oceans’ evaporation will be much longer, like not 1, but 4 billion years—but it didn’t account timing of the 4 main transitions.
But imagine that each transition typically has rate 1 time in 1 billions years. In that case having 4 transitions in 4 billion years seems pretty normal.
If we assume that typical time for each transition is 10 billion years, current Earth age will be not normal, but it is not informative as we got just what we assumed.
I also have a following question: which order of transitions will imply that Earth is nor rare? One answer is that time until oceans’ evaporation will be much longer, like not 1, but 4 billion years—but it didn’t account timing of the 4 main transitions.
But imagine that each transition typically has rate 1 time in 1 billions years. In that case having 4 transitions in 4 billion years seems pretty normal.
If we assume that typical time for each transition is 10 billion years, current Earth age will be not normal, but it is not informative as we got just what we assumed.