How confident are you that someone is going to press it? If it’s pressed: what’s the frequency of someone pressing it? What can learn from it? Does any of the rules 2-5 play a crucial role in the decision to press it?
I was more or less going to say the same thing. No, I wouldn’t press the button except in the most extremely bad scenarios I can imagine. As for how confident I am in that, I’m pretty tempted to say certain. Whether it is due to nihilistic glee, curiosity, clumsiness, or sheer stupidity, that button is going to be pressed. Now, there are scenarios that I can imagine that delay things for a human-significant amount of time.
Factors that I can think of right now that would expand the timeline:
ease of access to a doom button
cost to access a doom button
time of access for a doom button
intentionality verification requirements to press a doom button
societal and cultural significance of the doom button
scale of knowledge of
doom buttons
how to access doom buttons
how to operate doom buttons
I do live in Florida, so my estimates may be atypical.
I would estimate that for about 100 000 people the chance of someone pressing a doom button sitting right in front of them with full instructions on any given day would be around 1:100 for odds. A roll of a d100 sounds about right there. So that’s 1.00e-8 per person, per day. Using 8 billion as the world population comparing, the magnitudes of 1.00e-8 and 8.00e9, the population is going to swamp the odds of a doom button being pressed in a short time.
How confident are you that someone is going to press it? If it’s pressed: what’s the frequency of someone pressing it? What can learn from it? Does any of the rules 2-5 play a crucial role in the decision to press it?
(we are still alive so far!)
I was more or less going to say the same thing. No, I wouldn’t press the button except in the most extremely bad scenarios I can imagine. As for how confident I am in that, I’m pretty tempted to say certain. Whether it is due to nihilistic glee, curiosity, clumsiness, or sheer stupidity, that button is going to be pressed. Now, there are scenarios that I can imagine that delay things for a human-significant amount of time.
Factors that I can think of right now that would expand the timeline:
ease of access to a doom button
cost to access a doom button
time of access for a doom button
intentionality verification requirements to press a doom button
societal and cultural significance of the doom button
scale of knowledge of
doom buttons
how to access doom buttons
how to operate doom buttons
I do live in Florida, so my estimates may be atypical.
I would estimate that for about 100 000 people the chance of someone pressing a doom button sitting right in front of them with full instructions on any given day would be around 1:100 for odds. A roll of a d100 sounds about right there. So that’s 1.00e-8 per person, per day. Using 8 billion as the world population comparing, the magnitudes of 1.00e-8 and 8.00e9, the population is going to swamp the odds of a doom button being pressed in a short time.
Out of 8 billion people? Very near 100%. Of your handful of respondents? I have no idea, nor why I should care.
I’m asking you what we can learn from it, because you clearly have an idea. If you want to wait for the poll to fill before saying more, that’s fine.