Yeah, I think it doesn’t reflect that well on Lesswrong that the other comment wasn’t challenged more earlier. (E.g., since when do depressed people frequently lose their sense of smell??) It seems like the pendulum has swung so much from “we should be extremely cautious” to “people are overreacting” that it’s starting to get unreasonable again.
Also, the other answer here mentions this:
“My model is that risk of getting seriously ill from COVID for someone in my demographic, after full vaccination, is zero for all practical purposes.”
It really depends if we count Long Covid as “serious.” Certainly seems serious if people’s sense of self-worth is related to being able to do deep work, which you can mostly forget about with Long Covid for >12 months. Doubly vaccinated reduces risks of getting infected by 85%, and a 30% further reduction in Long Covid risk conditional on getting sick. That’s a 10x reduction. But case numbers will be up more than 10x compared to large periods of 2020 (e.g., last summer). Therefore, it’s not unreasonable to still be concerned and keep an eye on case numbers.
Yeah, I think it doesn’t reflect that well on Lesswrong that the other comment wasn’t challenged more earlier. (E.g., since when do depressed people frequently lose their sense of smell??) It seems like the pendulum has swung so much from “we should be extremely cautious” to “people are overreacting” that it’s starting to get unreasonable again.
Also, the other answer here mentions this:
“My model is that risk of getting seriously ill from COVID for someone in my demographic, after full vaccination, is zero for all practical purposes.”
It really depends if we count Long Covid as “serious.” Certainly seems serious if people’s sense of self-worth is related to being able to do deep work, which you can mostly forget about with Long Covid for >12 months. Doubly vaccinated reduces risks of getting infected by 85%, and a 30% further reduction in Long Covid risk conditional on getting sick. That’s a 10x reduction. But case numbers will be up more than 10x compared to large periods of 2020 (e.g., last summer). Therefore, it’s not unreasonable to still be concerned and keep an eye on case numbers.