Supposedly Trump announced that back in October, so it should already be priced in.
(Here’s my attempt at making sense of it, for what it’s worth.)
Trump “announces” a lot of things. It doesn’t matter until he actually does them.
Well, he didn’t do it yet either, did he? His new announcement is, likewise, just that: an announcement. Manifold is still 35% on him not following through on it, for example.
Politicians announce all sorts of things on the campaign trail, that usually is not much indication of what post-election policy will be.
Current theme: default
Less Wrong (text)
Less Wrong (link)
Supposedly Trump announced that back in October, so it should already be priced in.
(Here’s my attempt at making sense of it, for what it’s worth.)
Trump “announces” a lot of things. It doesn’t matter until he actually does them.
Well, he didn’t do it yet either, did he? His new announcement is, likewise, just that: an announcement. Manifold is still 35% on him not following through on it, for example.
Politicians announce all sorts of things on the campaign trail, that usually is not much indication of what post-election policy will be.