It significantly influenced mine, though the majority of that influence wasn’t the evidence it provided but rather the motivation it gave me to think more carefully and deeply about timelines.
I’ve shifted my investment portfolio, taken on a higher-risk and more short-term-focused career path, become less concerned about paying off debt, and done more thinking and talking about timelines.
That said, I think it’s actually less significant for our actions than most people seem to think. The difference between 30% chance of TAI in the next 6 years, and 5%, may seem like a lot, but it’s probably a small contribution to the EV difference between your options compared to the other relevant differences such as personal fit, neglectedness, tractability, etc.
I don’t know what that means, sorry. But my guess is that the answer is no; why pay now for something which will only maybe be worth it 20years from now?
An endowment policy is a life insurance contract designed to pay a lump sum after a specific term or on death. Typical maturities are ten, fifteen or twenty years up to a certain age limit.
That is only an example. If you believe that , for example, that it is likely that humanity will go extinct in 2030 - you shall not make an investment for which the pay day is after 2030. Because the anticipated profit is 0.
So, rephrasing my question: Is it rational to make an investment today for which the returns are after 2040? (Because humanity might go extinct due to AI by then).
OK, thanks for the explanation. Yeah life insurance seems marginally useful to me anyway (It costs money in expectation, but makes your risk profile better) so adding in a 30-50% chance that it’ll never pay off makes it clearly not worth it I think. To answer your question, well, it would depend on how good the returns are, but they’d have to be unusually high for me to recommend it.
Apparently, GPT-3 has greatly influenced the forecasts. I wonder if this is true?
It significantly influenced mine, though the majority of that influence wasn’t the evidence it provided but rather the motivation it gave me to think more carefully and deeply about timelines.
But your timeline should be highly significant for your actions. How has your timeline update affected your planned decisions?
I’ve shifted my investment portfolio, taken on a higher-risk and more short-term-focused career path, become less concerned about paying off debt, and done more thinking and talking about timelines.
That said, I think it’s actually less significant for our actions than most people seem to think. The difference between 30% chance of TAI in the next 6 years, and 5%, may seem like a lot, but it’s probably a small contribution to the EV difference between your options compared to the other relevant differences such as personal fit, neglectedness, tractability, etc.
So, hypothetically : should I buy an endowment life insurance in which the maturity is after 20 years?
I don’t know what that means, sorry. But my guess is that the answer is no; why pay now for something which will only maybe be worth it 20years from now?
An endowment policy is a life insurance contract designed to pay a lump sum after a specific term or on death. Typical maturities are ten, fifteen or twenty years up to a certain age limit. That is only an example. If you believe that , for example, that it is likely that humanity will go extinct in 2030 - you shall not make an investment for which the pay day is after 2030. Because the anticipated profit is 0. So, rephrasing my question: Is it rational to make an investment today for which the returns are after 2040? (Because humanity might go extinct due to AI by then).
OK, thanks for the explanation. Yeah life insurance seems marginally useful to me anyway (It costs money in expectation, but makes your risk profile better) so adding in a 30-50% chance that it’ll never pay off makes it clearly not worth it I think. To answer your question, well, it would depend on how good the returns are, but they’d have to be unusually high for me to recommend it.
I see. Thanks for responding.