I know this post and have two problems with it: what they call ’anthropic shadow” is not proper term as Bostrom defined anthropic shadow as underestimation of past risks based on the fact of survival in his article this the same name. But it’s ok.
The more serious problem is that quantum immortality and angel immortality eventually merges: for example, if we survive 10 LHC failures because of QI, we most likely survive only on those timeline where some alien stops LHC. So both QI and angel immortality can be true and support one another and there is no contradiction.
The more serious problem is that quantum immortality and angel immortality eventually merges
An interesting observation, but I don’t see how that is a problem with Anthropically Blind? I do not assert anywhere that QI and anthropic angel are contradictory. Rather, I give QI as an example of an anthropic angel.
I understood your argument as following; anything which is an argument for QI, can also be argument for alien saving us. Thus, nothing is evidence for QI. However, apriory probabilities of QI and alien are not mutually independent. QI increases chances of alien with every round. We can’t observe QI directly. But we will observe the alien and this is what is predicted by QI.
No, the argument is that the traditional (weak) evidence for anthropic shadow is instead evidence of anthropic angel. QI is an example of anthropic angel, not anthropic shadow.
So for example, a statistically implausible number of LHC failures would be evidence for some sort of QI and also other related anthropic angel hypotheses, and they don’t need to be exclusive.
Past LHC failures are just civilization-level QI. (BTW, there are real things like this related to the history of earth atmosphere, in which CO2 content was anti-correlated with Sun’s luminosity which result in stable temperatures). But it is not clear to me, what are other anthropic effects, which are not QI – what do you mean here? Can you provide one more example?
A universe with classical mechanics, except that when you die the universe gets resampled, would be anthropic angelic.
Beings who save you are also anthropic angelic. For example, the fact that you don’t die while driving is because the engineers explicitly tried to minimize your chance of death. You can make inferences based on this. For example, even if you have never crashed, you can reason that during a crash you will endure less damage than other parts of the car, because the engineers wanted to save you more than they wanted to save the parts of the car.
I know this post and have two problems with it: what they call ’anthropic shadow” is not proper term as Bostrom defined anthropic shadow as underestimation of past risks based on the fact of survival in his article this the same name. But it’s ok.
The more serious problem is that quantum immortality and angel immortality eventually merges: for example, if we survive 10 LHC failures because of QI, we most likely survive only on those timeline where some alien stops LHC. So both QI and angel immortality can be true and support one another and there is no contradiction.
An interesting observation, but I don’t see how that is a problem with Anthropically Blind? I do not assert anywhere that QI and anthropic angel are contradictory. Rather, I give QI as an example of an anthropic angel.
I understood your argument as following; anything which is an argument for QI, can also be argument for alien saving us. Thus, nothing is evidence for QI.
However, apriory probabilities of QI and alien are not mutually independent. QI increases chances of alien with every round. We can’t observe QI directly. But we will observe the alien and this is what is predicted by QI.
No, the argument is that the traditional (weak) evidence for anthropic shadow is instead evidence of anthropic angel. QI is an example of anthropic angel, not anthropic shadow.
So for example, a statistically implausible number of LHC failures would be evidence for some sort of QI and also other related anthropic angel hypotheses, and they don’t need to be exclusive.
Past LHC failures are just civilization-level QI. (BTW, there are real things like this related to the history of earth atmosphere, in which CO2 content was anti-correlated with Sun’s luminosity which result in stable temperatures). But it is not clear to me, what are other anthropic effects, which are not QI – what do you mean here? Can you provide one more example?
A universe with classical mechanics, except that when you die the universe gets resampled, would be anthropic angelic.
Beings who save you are also anthropic angelic. For example, the fact that you don’t die while driving is because the engineers explicitly tried to minimize your chance of death. You can make inferences based on this. For example, even if you have never crashed, you can reason that during a crash you will endure less damage than other parts of the car, because the engineers wanted to save you more than they wanted to save the parts of the car.