then you want to use the simpler one—not because it’s more likely to be ‘true’, but because it allows you to think more clearly.
Congratulations, you have now officially broken with Bayesianism and become a heretic. Your degree of belief in (prior probability of) a hypothesis should not depend on how clearly it allows you to think. Surely you can imagine all manner of ugly scenarios if that were the case.
Preferring to use a simpler theory doesn’t require believing it to be more probable than it is. Expected utility maximization to the rescue.
Preferring to use a simpler theory doesn’t require believing it to be more probable than it is. Expected utility maximization to the rescue.