Lovely, if I end up doing this with the LW people that data might be credible enough to close the market ?
Otherwise I can provide confirmation from the people I’m doing it with presently (all fairly respectable & with enough of a reputation in the bay tech scene)
I can ping you to resolve NO if the first run fails.
Sounds good. Yes I think the LW people would probably be credible enough if it works. I’d prefer if they provided confirmation (not you) just so not all the data is coming from one person.
Yeap, that was my impression. I will just confirm “no” and direct other people to confirm “yes” to you—and, if you believe the trust adds up, you can resolve the market.
I made a manifold market for if this will replicate: https://manifold.markets/g_w1/will-george3d6s-increasing-iq-is-tr I’m not really sure what the resolution criteria should be, so I just made some that sounded reasonable, but feel free to give suggestions.
Lovely, if I end up doing this with the LW people that data might be credible enough to close the market ?
Otherwise I can provide confirmation from the people I’m doing it with presently (all fairly respectable & with enough of a reputation in the bay tech scene)
I can ping you to resolve NO if the first run fails.
Sounds good. Yes I think the LW people would probably be credible enough if it works. I’d prefer if they provided confirmation (not you) just so not all the data is coming from one person.
Feel free to ping me to resolve no.
Yeap, that was my impression. I will just confirm “no” and direct other people to confirm “yes” to you—and, if you believe the trust adds up, you can resolve the market.