Why is whether your decision actually changes the boxes important to you?
[....]
If you argue yourself into a decision theory that doesn’t serve you well, you’ve only managed to shoot yourself in the foot.
In the absence of my decision affecting the boxes, taking one box and leaving $1000 on the table still looks like shooting myself in the foot. (Of course if I had the ability to precommit to one-box I would—so, okay, if Omega ever asks me this I will take one box. But if Omega asked me to make a decision after filling the boxes and before I’d made a precommitment… still two boxes.)
I think I’m going to back out of this discussion until I understand decision theory a bit better.
I think I’m going to back out of this discussion until I understand decision theory a bit better.
Feel free. You can revisit this conversation any time you feel like it. Discussion threads never really die here, there’s no community norm against replying to comments long after they’re posted.
In the absence of my decision affecting the boxes, taking one box and leaving $1000 on the table still looks like shooting myself in the foot. (Of course if I had the ability to precommit to one-box I would—so, okay, if Omega ever asks me this I will take one box. But if Omega asked me to make a decision after filling the boxes and before I’d made a precommitment… still two boxes.)
I think I’m going to back out of this discussion until I understand decision theory a bit better.
Feel free. You can revisit this conversation any time you feel like it. Discussion threads never really die here, there’s no community norm against replying to comments long after they’re posted.