Four ways I’ve made bad decisions
I was in the process of making a decision the other day, and thought about the times I felt like I either made an incorrect decision or followed an incorrect decision making process. Turns out, there was actually many such cases.[1]
I categorized those into four different failure modes. I’m writing them down for myself and figured that people here might appreciate them as well. I’m not too sure how generalizable these lessons are, and of course the law of equal and opposite advice applies.
I wrote this up quickly (by my standards), so there might be some mistakes here and there.
Slipping into a decision
Sometimes there is a consequential choice I have to make at some point in the future—in my case, which city to live in after I graduate from college. I could make some preliminary decision now without too much thought and start preparing for that scenario, knowing that this decision is fully reversible. During this time, I simultaneously feel comforted by two contradictory facts
There’s time to change my mind so I don’t have to stress about whether I’ve made the right decision
I’ve chosen an option as the “default” already so I don’t have to think about this decision problem right now.
Essentially, I would fail to revisit the initial, hastily made decision, and I would slide across time until I can’t reverse my choice anymore. This is an even bigger problem when there is no clear-cut date beyond which I can’t reverse the decision.[2]
The plan is to notice when I’m doing this and set clear dates to revise my decision.
Making a decision too quickly
This one is a pretty easily described failure mode. There’s two cases where I made this mistake. The first is not realizing that I’m making a consequential decision that requires deliberation. The second is when I feel rushed and stressed about something, so I feel like I have to make a decision and run with it.
It is true that sometimes we need to make decisions on the spot. However, my hunch is that when I feel like I need to make a decision right now, I probably don’t in most cases. So I’ll be more suspicious of those feelings from now on.
Have decisions influenced by self-image
The canonical example for this can of course be found in HPMOR, chapter 108:
You don’t see nice ways to do the things you want to do… Even when a nice strategy would be more effective you don’t see it because you have a self-image of not being nice.
Decision problems coming from self-image issues often means that we ignore alternatives that we didn’t even consider or thought was possible (which was also the case in the book). In this case, I think it’s most productive to talk your decision over with a friend who could see things from a different perspective.
Another remedy is to be mindful of any felt senses, especially anxiety or fear, when making a decision. If you feel unease, track down where it came from.
Making decisions without knowledge of the alternatives
This one sounds like a stupid mistake to make—what do you mean you chose between A and B without knowing what they entail? But I think I actually do this quite often. It’s very comforting to have everything planned out. A plan makes me feel reassured in the face of uncertainty.
But the point of having a plan is not to feel good about the future but actually make it better. I realized I have fallen into this failure mode when I found myself often making big updates to my future plans after encountering a little bit of evidence, and going, “what the heck, I should’ve sought out the evidence beforehand.”
I should’ve investigate the various options for at least five minutes, and do the sort of investigation that would actually lead to new information that could change my mind, not whatever investigation is most convenient (and allows me to say to myself “I’ve done my due diligence, and now I have a plan that’s as good as it can be.”).
There are numerous blog posts that gets recommended in the community about “doing the actual thing” instead of planning about it. And I think there’s definitely some point where you’ve just been planning all day instead of doing the thing. I think I might be falling for the opposite failure mode sometimes, where I’ll make a plan for doing the thing without thinking through it too much, and then when it comes to execution time it’s clear that my plan has issues, and that some more investigation during the planning period could save me a lot of pain down the line.
Now I’ll try to not repeat a fault
哀公问：“弟子孰为好学？”孔子对曰：“有颜回者好学，不迁怒，不贰过。不幸短命死矣！今也则亡，未闻好学者也。”
The Duke Ai asked which of the disciples loved to learn.
Confucius replied to him, “There was Yen Hui; he loved to learn. He did not transfer his anger; he did not repeat a fault. Unfortunately, his appointed time was short and he died; and now there is not such another. I have not yet heard of any one who loves to learn as he did.”
From The Analects
- ^
Years of RATIONALITY and MICROECONOMIC THEORY yet still I still CANNOT make correct decisions. They have played us for absolute fools.
- ^
There’s something similar to this in chapter 111 of HPMOR, where Harry “should have reconsidered the decision” to [removed to avoid spoilers]. The decision was made in a context that made it less important, but the context has since changed. There isn’t a “reversible decision becomes irreversible over time” dynamic in the story though.
Practical examples of failure modes to avoid are IMO a very valuable type of content; good post!