“Regular people using lie detectors on politicians” does seem impossible, but “government officials and big corps using lie detectors on regular people” (to any interesting extent) is far from clear, it’s easy to see how it could be successfully resisted by appealing to human rights intuitions, or channeled towards significantly different forms of use, escaping your description. (Even China’s regime is not certain to persist in relevant respects on this timescale.)
I find it implausible for your level of certainty (and/or focus on listed scenarios) to be correct.
I agree about the second part. But the first part is pretty obvious, isn’t it?
“Regular people using lie detectors on politicians” does seem impossible, but “government officials and big corps using lie detectors on regular people” (to any interesting extent) is far from clear, it’s easy to see how it could be successfully resisted by appealing to human rights intuitions, or channeled towards significantly different forms of use, escaping your description. (Even China’s regime is not certain to persist in relevant respects on this timescale.)
This seems apropos.