My distribution is very uncertain, but I’d say 25% by June 2027 and 50% by Jan 2031.
(I answer a similar question, but for a slightly higher bar of capabilties and operationalized somewhat differently here. I’ve since updated towards slightly longer timelines. You might also be interested in the timeline in AI-2027.)
My distribution is very uncertain, but I’d say 25% by June 2027 and 50% by Jan 2031.
(I answer a similar question, but for a slightly higher bar of capabilties and operationalized somewhat differently here. I’ve since updated towards slightly longer timelines. You might also be interested in the timeline in AI-2027.)