One thing I find interesting, as an example that may be particularly pertinent to some rationalists, is how effective altruism has, in spite of everything else, been robust to the kinds of schisms you’re talking about. In spite of all the differences between different factions of EA, it remains a grand coalition/alliance (of a sort). Each of the following subgroups of EA, usually built around a specific, preferred cause, in total has at a few hundred if not a couple thousand adherents in EA, and I expect would each be able to command millions of dollars in donations to their preferred charities each year, including:
high-impact/evidence-based global poverty alleviation (aka global health and development)
AI risk/alignment/safety
existential risk reduction (inclusive of AI risk as a distinct and primary subgroup, but focused on other potential x-risks as well)
effective animal advocacy (focused on farm animal welfare)
reducing wild animal suffering (focused on wild animal welfare)
rationality
transhumanism
While none of these subgroups of EA is wholly within EA, it’s very possible the majority of members of these communities also identifies as part of the EA community as well. An easy explanation is that everyone is sticking around for the Open Phil bucks, or the chance of receiving Open Phil bucks in the future, as a cause area’s increased prominence in EA is moderately-to-highly correlated with them receiving ⇒ $10^7/year within a few years, when before each area’s annual funding was probably ⇐ $10^5. Yet there isn’t a guarantee, and the barriers to access to these resources has been such that I’ve seen multiple of these subgroups openly and seriously consider splitting with EA. If any or all of these causes could sustain and grow themselves such that one or more of them might do better by investing its own resources into growing outside of EA, and securing its independence. However, as far as I can tell, there has never been a single, whole cause area of EA that has ‘exited’ the community. As the movement has existed for ~10 years, it seems unlikely that this would be the case if there wasn’t other factors contributing to the cohesion of such otherwise disparate groups.
One thing I find interesting, as an example that may be particularly pertinent to some rationalists, is how effective altruism has, in spite of everything else, been robust to the kinds of schisms you’re talking about. In spite of all the differences between different factions of EA, it remains a grand coalition/alliance (of a sort). Each of the following subgroups of EA, usually built around a specific, preferred cause, in total has at a few hundred if not a couple thousand adherents in EA, and I expect would each be able to command millions of dollars in donations to their preferred charities each year, including:
high-impact/evidence-based global poverty alleviation (aka global health and development)
AI risk/alignment/safety
existential risk reduction (inclusive of AI risk as a distinct and primary subgroup, but focused on other potential x-risks as well)
effective animal advocacy (focused on farm animal welfare)
reducing wild animal suffering (focused on wild animal welfare)
rationality
transhumanism
While none of these subgroups of EA is wholly within EA, it’s very possible the majority of members of these communities also identifies as part of the EA community as well. An easy explanation is that everyone is sticking around for the Open Phil bucks, or the chance of receiving Open Phil bucks in the future, as a cause area’s increased prominence in EA is moderately-to-highly correlated with them receiving ⇒ $10^7/year within a few years, when before each area’s annual funding was probably ⇐ $10^5. Yet there isn’t a guarantee, and the barriers to access to these resources has been such that I’ve seen multiple of these subgroups openly and seriously consider splitting with EA. If any or all of these causes could sustain and grow themselves such that one or more of them might do better by investing its own resources into growing outside of EA, and securing its independence. However, as far as I can tell, there has never been a single, whole cause area of EA that has ‘exited’ the community. As the movement has existed for ~10 years, it seems unlikely that this would be the case if there wasn’t other factors contributing to the cohesion of such otherwise disparate groups.